The 2012 MLB regular season came to a close last night and while there wasn't quite as much drama as the final day last year, there were still a few significant developments.
The New York Yankees won and the Baltimore Orioles lost, meaning the Yankees clinched the #1 seed in the AL and home-field advantage through the ALCS, while the Orioles get one of the two wild card spots and will play a winner-takes-all game on Friday to see who gets to play....the Yankees.
The Oakland A's won three straight against the Texas Rangers, completing an improbable comeback to win the AL West. As a result, they get the #2 seed in the AL and will play the Detroit Tigers in the ALDS. Meanwhile, the Rangers' loss means they get to travel to Baltimore on Friday to play the Orioles. Again, winner of that game will advance to face the Yankees in a 5-game ALDS series.
As for the National League...ah, who cares. This is an American League post. That said, congrats to the Washington Nationals for clinching home-field through the NLCS. And I'm looking forward to rooting for the Braves to win the winner-takes-all wild card game on Friday, so that Chipper Jones can make one last run at a 2nd World Series ring.
The biggest development of the night, however, happened in Kansas City where despite Miguel Cabrera's 0-2 night, he became the first player since 1967 to win the Triple Crown. For those who don't know, the Triple Crown is awarded to a player who leads his league in batting average, home runs AND RBIs. Cabrera's final stat line of .330/44/139 won him the award. This is an amazing feat on so many levels. I mean 45 years? Imagine what has happened in 45 years, and not a single MLB player has led his league in all three categories during that time period until now. Hats off to Miguel Cabrera, your 2012 American League MV....wait, what's that? Cabrera didn't win the MVP? I mean I know the voting hasn't taken place yet, but he's a lock, right?
In the words of a barely still-alive-Lee Corso, not so fast!! There is this guy named Mike Trout who plays for the Los Angeles Angels who might have something to say about that.
If you watch baseball coverage on ESPN or read about it on any sports website, you undoubtedly have heard analysts debate this exact issue: Trout or Cabrera for AL MVP. And the debate really boils down to old school versus new school.
Old School:
The "old school" way of looking at baseball stats is to focus primarily on the three Triple Crown categories - average, home runs and RBIs. Historically, the players who hit the most home runs and knocked in the most runs would win the MVP (as long as their batting average wasn't awful). Also, old school baseball guys value the player's team making the playoffs. As an example of this, look at last year's NL MVP race. Matt Kemp had historically great numbers but the Dodgers missed the playoffs and Ryan Braun won the award. So what is my point here? Well, all the old school factors weigh heavily in favor of Miguel Cabrera winning the AL MVP. As I mentioned earlier, he won this award called the Triple Crown that is pretty damn special. Factor in that the Tigers won the AL Central and made the playoffs, while the Angels finished 3rd in the AL West and did not, and Cabrera is your AL MVP!
New School:
To avoid boring you with things like OPS+, let's just say that the "new school" way of looking at baseball stats factors in a lot more than just average, home runs and RBIs. These new school stats factor in the ballpark a player plays most of his games in, the player's defense, base running ability and a lot of other "stats" that some would argue leads to a more well-rounded analysis of a player's value. As you might have guessed, the new school approach favors Mike Trout for AL MVP. I am an unapologetic Tigers homer, but even I can make the case for Mike Trout winning the MVP. In 2012, Trout hit .326 with 30 home runs and 83 RBIs. Ok, but those numbers are all less, and some are significantly less, than Cabrera. Fine, Trout's 129 runs scored were 20 more than any other player in the majors and his 49 stolen bases were also tops in the majors. By most accounts, Trout is the best defensive center fielder in baseball - and if you don't believe me, go to MLB.com and search the video archives. Finally, Trout has had this unbelievable season as a ROOKIE who only just turned 21 years old! If you love a storyline, and most baseball people do, then Trout putting up these historic numbers as a 20 year old rookie should all but guarantee he wins the AL MVP.
Ok, but how do you compare Cabrera's "old school" Triple Crown stats with Trout's "new school" base running and defense? That is where WAR comes into play.
WAR:
WAR stands for Wins Above Replacement. Again, there is A LOT that goes into this stat, and I'm not qualified to explain it all. But what is boils down to is this: smarter people than you and me developed a formula to measure an individual player's value as compared to the average replacement-level player at his position. This formula takes into account the standard hitting stats, but also factors in defense and base running. The formula provides a player with a number, and that number represents the amount of wins the player added to his team's total as compared to an average replacement-level player at that position.
As you can probably imagine, WAR favors Trout in this debate. Trout's WAR for 2012 is 10.7. In the history of baseball, only about 100 times has a player finished the season with a WAR of 10.0 or higher, and most of those seasons were a long time ago. Again, for comparison's sake, Trout led the MLB in WAR. Robinson Cano was 2nd, at 8.2. Cabrera was 5th, at 6.9.
So who is the AL MVP? I really think it boils down to which camp you are in - old school or new school. Many people will vote for Cabrera based solely on his Triple Crown. I have no problem with that, but I'd only ask one follow up question: if Josh Hamilton hit 2 home runs last night and ended up with 45, would you then NOT vote for Cabrera because he didn't win the Triple Crown? Seems silly for your vote to swing on another player's performance, no? And if you vote for Trout, do you factor in that his team did not make the playoffs? What about the fact that he had 14 less home runs and 56 less RBIs than Cabrera?
If I had a vote, I'd vote for Cabrera. But I would never get a vote because of my Tigers' bias. The bottom line here is that there is no right or wrong answer. I think Cabrera will win the MVP because the new school way of thinking hasn't fully caught on yet amongst the voters for MVP. It's hard to look at Cabrera's .330/44/139 and not think MVP. Then you take a second to really comprehend what winning the Triple Crown means, and he seems like a runaway favorite. Just don't be surprised if the vote is closer than you think it should be. In any event, Cabrera is only 29 years old and Trout is 21. I'll see you back here in a year when we are most likely debating the same thing.
Thursday, October 4, 2012
Friday, August 24, 2012
Bold Predictions: Fantasy Football 2012
Fantasy football season is upon us once again! This time of year is probably most guys' favorite - the summer is coming to an end, which means less heat and more football. For me, the fall is absolutely the best season. Summer may have out-ranked the fall back in high school and college, but now that I am a working stiff, fall wins out. There is nothing better than a 60 degree, sunny fall weekend day where you can throw on jeans (maybe a hoodie at night) and watch college/NFL football. Not to mention fall brings pumpkin spiced everything - coffee, beer, donuts, ice cream - you name it. LOVE the pumpkin spice flavor (except Starbucks - awful).
Anyway, instead of discussing one of my fantasy football leagues this year (I am in 6 - 5 NFL and 1 college), I am going to go through all 32 NFL teams and give a bold prediction or two related to fantasy football. I'm not going to bore you with predictions like "Aaron Rodgers will be the best fantasy QB", because, well, that's boring. Instead, I'll try to identify some players I like more than most, or players who are I think are being overvalued in drafts. Basically, I am copying/combining ESPN fantasy expert Matthew Berry's "Love/Hate" and "You Heard Me!" columns. Normally, I'd worry about the guys in my leagues reading this and stealing my picks in our upcoming drafts. However, my friends are a$$holes and don't read my blog. So no worries there. Teams in alphabetical order:
Arizona Cardinals: Not a lot to like on the Cardinals in terms of fantasy (or real life for that matter) other than WR Larry Fitzgerald. However, I think 2nd year RB Ryan Williams will recover nicely from the knee injury that ruined his 2011 rookie season and he will be the Cardinals top fantasy RB, over always-injured Beanie Wells.
Atlanta Falcons: Matt Ryan and Julio Jones are getting all the preseason love as breakout players this year, and probably rightfully so. I like both, and would be happy with Matt Ryan as my starting QB in a 10-team league and think Julio Jones will push for top 10 WR status. However, my prediction is that he does not overtake WR Roddy White as the Falcons top fantasy WR. White is being undervalued a bit in drafts this year, mainly because of Jones. I'd still take White as a top 5 WR, in the mid-late 2nd round.
Baltimore Ravens: WR Torrey Smith will be a top 20 fantasy WR. Flacco has a massive arm, and Smith is ready to haul in some bombs this year. This prediction would have looked even better before Smith went 8-103 in last night's preseason game. I liked him this much even before that.
Buffalo Bills: I still love Fred Jackson and think he's a solid RB2 in fantasy this year. People forget that he was a top 5 fantasy RB in terms of points scored last year before he got hurt. However, I think this is the year CJ Spiller breaks out. The Bills will use him a lot as a slot WR, which will allow both Jackson and Spiller to have big years. I think Spiller is a great flex option, possibly even RB2 territory by the end of the season.
Carolina Panthers: Man, what a year Cam Newton had in 2011! And as a rookie. Logic says he will only improve as he matures into a big-time NFL QB. Screw logic. I say Newton regresses this year, and finishes outside the top 10 QBs. 14 rushing TDs just ain't happening again, sorry.
Chicago Bears: Everyone is on the Brandon Marshall hype-train this year, as he is once again paried with the QB who helped Marshall rack up multiple 100-catch seasons in Denver (Cutler). I do think Marshall will be a top 10 WR, but that's not bold. Instead, I'll predict Matt Forte as a top 3 RB, and say he finishes with more points than LeSean McCoy and Arian Foster. Right now Forte's being drafted in the early 2nd. I'd take him as high as 7th overall.
Cincinnati Bengals: A.J. Green finishes 2012 as the #2 WR in fantasy, behind only Calvin Johnson.
Cleveland Browns: Trent Richardson battles knee/injury problems all year, ending the season outside the top 20 RBs in fantasy. But, in 2013, he will be a bargain in drafts, as I think he'll eventually be a perennial first round pick. He's got the skills.
Dallas Cowboys: Man, the Cowboys seems to have awesome fantasy stars every year pre-draft, only to see those guys bust in the regular season. This year will be no different, as Dez Bryant and Miles Austin will finish in the 20-30 range for WRs, and Tony Romo will barely squeeze inside the top 10 QBs. The only guy who will produce is DeMarco Murray, who will finish as a top 10 RB. He has top 5 upside.
Denver Broncos: Peyton Manning returns to glory and finishes as a top 5 fantasy QB. He may struggle the first 2-3 weeks, but, if healthy, he's too good not to rebound strong.
Detroit Lions: It's easy to say that Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson will be awesome again. I think Stafford finishes as the 3rd highest scoring QB and Megatron as the top WR. But I'll go one step further and say that WR Titus Young will be starter-worthy in standard fantasy leagues, meaning he'll be a top 20 option regularly each week by mid-season.
Green Bay Packers: Jordy Nelson cannot repeat his 2011 magic, as Randall Cobb and Jermichael Finley take on bigger roles in the offense. Also, Cedric Benson finishes as a top 25 RB in fantasy points.
Houston Texans: The Texans finish with top 10 players at each offensive fantasy position - QB, RB, WR, TE - with Matt Schaub, Arian Foster, Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels.
Indianapolis Colts: Andrew Luck has a great year, but still finishes outside the top 12 QBs. However, Donald Brown finally emerges as a weekly starting fantasy RB, finishing 15th at the position in overall points.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Maurice Jones-Drew plays week 1 of the season and finishes as a top 6 fantasy RB, rewarding all those drafters ballsy enough to pick him in the first round.
Kansas City Chiefs: Plenty of carries to go around in KC, as both Jamaal Charles and Peyton Hillis finish as top 20 fantasy RBs; Charles at #8 and Hillis at #18.
Miami Dolphins: Awful offense for the Dolphins, but Daniel Thomas (2 great first names by the way) will be healthy and have a big bounce-back season, finishing as a top 25 fantasy RB. He's currently being drafted 45th at the RB position.
Minnesota Vikings: Percy Harvin finishes as a top 10 WR (again) but continues to be overlooked and regarded as an injury-prone flex option.
New England Patriots: Rob Gronkowski disappoints everyone who drafted him in the 2nd round by putting up good, but not great numbers (something like 70-900-8). He still finishes as a top 3 TE though.
New Orleans Saints: Mark Ingram, being completely overlooked in drafts, takes control of the Saints running game and ends up as a top 20 RB (currently being drafted 35th).
New York Giants: Victor Cruz comes back to earth, finishing outside the top 20 WRs. This guy had 5 TDs of more than 65 yards last year! That is simply not repeatable.
New York Jets: Another awful fantasy offense - probably real life too. But, similar to last year, Tim Tebow will take over as the starting QB halfway through the season and become starter-worthy in 12-team leagues thanks to his uncanny ability to score rushing TDs.
Oakland Raiders: Darren McFadden will finally stay healthy and finish as a top 5 fantasy RB. In fact, I'll say he finishes 2nd overall in fantasy points amongst running backs.
Philadelphia Eagles: Michael Vick will actually play 14 games and finish as the 4th highest scoring fantasy QB in 2012. And Jeremy Maclin will benefit most from that. Big year coming for him.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Heinz Field will blow up like in the Dark Knight Rises and Steelers football will cease to exist. I wish. Ok, how about Mike Wallace, who is being undervalued because of his holdout that is about to end, will finish the season as a top 5 WR.
San Diego Chargers: Antonio Gates, now healthy, will beat out Gronkowski and finish as the 2nd highest point scorer amongst TEs.
San Francisco 49ers: Someone will draft the 49ers Defense/Special Teams before the 10th round in my draft on Sunday, I will make fun of them, and they will finish outside of the top 10 scoring D/STs in fantasy. Oh, and Alex Smith will still suck.
Seattle Seahawks: Doug Baldwin will emerge as the Seahawks top scoring WR, finishing inside the top 30 point scorers for fantasy WRs. He's being drafted 71st at WR!
St. Louis Rams: No Rams WR will be starter-worthy in fantasy this season, but Steven Jackson will continue to produce top 15 fantasy numbers from the RB spot. Draft him as a super-safe RB2.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Rookie RB Doug Martin will split carries with LaGarette Blount all season long, holding him back from being a RB2 in fantasy. Both Martin and Blount will be flex-worthy though.
Tennessee Titans: TE Jared Cook will explode this season as Jake Locker's favorite target, and finish as a top 5 fantasy TE. Wait to draft your TE until the last few rounds, grab Cook and thank me later.
Washington Redskins: Mike Shannahan will name 5 different Redskins RBs as his "starter" this season, making none of them starter-worthy in fantasy. Also, Robert Griffin III will struggle much more than Cam Newton did as a rookie last year, leading to him being dropped in all non-keeper fantasy leagues.
Anyway, instead of discussing one of my fantasy football leagues this year (I am in 6 - 5 NFL and 1 college), I am going to go through all 32 NFL teams and give a bold prediction or two related to fantasy football. I'm not going to bore you with predictions like "Aaron Rodgers will be the best fantasy QB", because, well, that's boring. Instead, I'll try to identify some players I like more than most, or players who are I think are being overvalued in drafts. Basically, I am copying/combining ESPN fantasy expert Matthew Berry's "Love/Hate" and "You Heard Me!" columns. Normally, I'd worry about the guys in my leagues reading this and stealing my picks in our upcoming drafts. However, my friends are a$$holes and don't read my blog. So no worries there. Teams in alphabetical order:
Arizona Cardinals: Not a lot to like on the Cardinals in terms of fantasy (or real life for that matter) other than WR Larry Fitzgerald. However, I think 2nd year RB Ryan Williams will recover nicely from the knee injury that ruined his 2011 rookie season and he will be the Cardinals top fantasy RB, over always-injured Beanie Wells.
Atlanta Falcons: Matt Ryan and Julio Jones are getting all the preseason love as breakout players this year, and probably rightfully so. I like both, and would be happy with Matt Ryan as my starting QB in a 10-team league and think Julio Jones will push for top 10 WR status. However, my prediction is that he does not overtake WR Roddy White as the Falcons top fantasy WR. White is being undervalued a bit in drafts this year, mainly because of Jones. I'd still take White as a top 5 WR, in the mid-late 2nd round.
Baltimore Ravens: WR Torrey Smith will be a top 20 fantasy WR. Flacco has a massive arm, and Smith is ready to haul in some bombs this year. This prediction would have looked even better before Smith went 8-103 in last night's preseason game. I liked him this much even before that.
Buffalo Bills: I still love Fred Jackson and think he's a solid RB2 in fantasy this year. People forget that he was a top 5 fantasy RB in terms of points scored last year before he got hurt. However, I think this is the year CJ Spiller breaks out. The Bills will use him a lot as a slot WR, which will allow both Jackson and Spiller to have big years. I think Spiller is a great flex option, possibly even RB2 territory by the end of the season.
Carolina Panthers: Man, what a year Cam Newton had in 2011! And as a rookie. Logic says he will only improve as he matures into a big-time NFL QB. Screw logic. I say Newton regresses this year, and finishes outside the top 10 QBs. 14 rushing TDs just ain't happening again, sorry.
Chicago Bears: Everyone is on the Brandon Marshall hype-train this year, as he is once again paried with the QB who helped Marshall rack up multiple 100-catch seasons in Denver (Cutler). I do think Marshall will be a top 10 WR, but that's not bold. Instead, I'll predict Matt Forte as a top 3 RB, and say he finishes with more points than LeSean McCoy and Arian Foster. Right now Forte's being drafted in the early 2nd. I'd take him as high as 7th overall.
Cincinnati Bengals: A.J. Green finishes 2012 as the #2 WR in fantasy, behind only Calvin Johnson.
Cleveland Browns: Trent Richardson battles knee/injury problems all year, ending the season outside the top 20 RBs in fantasy. But, in 2013, he will be a bargain in drafts, as I think he'll eventually be a perennial first round pick. He's got the skills.
Dallas Cowboys: Man, the Cowboys seems to have awesome fantasy stars every year pre-draft, only to see those guys bust in the regular season. This year will be no different, as Dez Bryant and Miles Austin will finish in the 20-30 range for WRs, and Tony Romo will barely squeeze inside the top 10 QBs. The only guy who will produce is DeMarco Murray, who will finish as a top 10 RB. He has top 5 upside.
Denver Broncos: Peyton Manning returns to glory and finishes as a top 5 fantasy QB. He may struggle the first 2-3 weeks, but, if healthy, he's too good not to rebound strong.
Detroit Lions: It's easy to say that Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson will be awesome again. I think Stafford finishes as the 3rd highest scoring QB and Megatron as the top WR. But I'll go one step further and say that WR Titus Young will be starter-worthy in standard fantasy leagues, meaning he'll be a top 20 option regularly each week by mid-season.
Green Bay Packers: Jordy Nelson cannot repeat his 2011 magic, as Randall Cobb and Jermichael Finley take on bigger roles in the offense. Also, Cedric Benson finishes as a top 25 RB in fantasy points.
Houston Texans: The Texans finish with top 10 players at each offensive fantasy position - QB, RB, WR, TE - with Matt Schaub, Arian Foster, Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels.
Indianapolis Colts: Andrew Luck has a great year, but still finishes outside the top 12 QBs. However, Donald Brown finally emerges as a weekly starting fantasy RB, finishing 15th at the position in overall points.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Maurice Jones-Drew plays week 1 of the season and finishes as a top 6 fantasy RB, rewarding all those drafters ballsy enough to pick him in the first round.
Kansas City Chiefs: Plenty of carries to go around in KC, as both Jamaal Charles and Peyton Hillis finish as top 20 fantasy RBs; Charles at #8 and Hillis at #18.
Miami Dolphins: Awful offense for the Dolphins, but Daniel Thomas (2 great first names by the way) will be healthy and have a big bounce-back season, finishing as a top 25 fantasy RB. He's currently being drafted 45th at the RB position.
Minnesota Vikings: Percy Harvin finishes as a top 10 WR (again) but continues to be overlooked and regarded as an injury-prone flex option.
New England Patriots: Rob Gronkowski disappoints everyone who drafted him in the 2nd round by putting up good, but not great numbers (something like 70-900-8). He still finishes as a top 3 TE though.
New Orleans Saints: Mark Ingram, being completely overlooked in drafts, takes control of the Saints running game and ends up as a top 20 RB (currently being drafted 35th).
New York Giants: Victor Cruz comes back to earth, finishing outside the top 20 WRs. This guy had 5 TDs of more than 65 yards last year! That is simply not repeatable.
New York Jets: Another awful fantasy offense - probably real life too. But, similar to last year, Tim Tebow will take over as the starting QB halfway through the season and become starter-worthy in 12-team leagues thanks to his uncanny ability to score rushing TDs.
Oakland Raiders: Darren McFadden will finally stay healthy and finish as a top 5 fantasy RB. In fact, I'll say he finishes 2nd overall in fantasy points amongst running backs.
Philadelphia Eagles: Michael Vick will actually play 14 games and finish as the 4th highest scoring fantasy QB in 2012. And Jeremy Maclin will benefit most from that. Big year coming for him.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Heinz Field will blow up like in the Dark Knight Rises and Steelers football will cease to exist. I wish. Ok, how about Mike Wallace, who is being undervalued because of his holdout that is about to end, will finish the season as a top 5 WR.
San Diego Chargers: Antonio Gates, now healthy, will beat out Gronkowski and finish as the 2nd highest point scorer amongst TEs.
San Francisco 49ers: Someone will draft the 49ers Defense/Special Teams before the 10th round in my draft on Sunday, I will make fun of them, and they will finish outside of the top 10 scoring D/STs in fantasy. Oh, and Alex Smith will still suck.
Seattle Seahawks: Doug Baldwin will emerge as the Seahawks top scoring WR, finishing inside the top 30 point scorers for fantasy WRs. He's being drafted 71st at WR!
St. Louis Rams: No Rams WR will be starter-worthy in fantasy this season, but Steven Jackson will continue to produce top 15 fantasy numbers from the RB spot. Draft him as a super-safe RB2.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Rookie RB Doug Martin will split carries with LaGarette Blount all season long, holding him back from being a RB2 in fantasy. Both Martin and Blount will be flex-worthy though.
Tennessee Titans: TE Jared Cook will explode this season as Jake Locker's favorite target, and finish as a top 5 fantasy TE. Wait to draft your TE until the last few rounds, grab Cook and thank me later.
Washington Redskins: Mike Shannahan will name 5 different Redskins RBs as his "starter" this season, making none of them starter-worthy in fantasy. Also, Robert Griffin III will struggle much more than Cam Newton did as a rookie last year, leading to him being dropped in all non-keeper fantasy leagues.
Thursday, August 9, 2012
Summer Olympics 2012: Day 12 Update
Another great day for the USA. Mike does a good job recapping, so I'll leave it to him.
Day 12:
My Two Cents:
Not much to add. I'll provide the link for the daily Viewing Guide. Definitely want to watch the gold medal women's soccer match between Japan and the US of A. Should be a great rematch of the World Cup final.
USA USA USA!!!
P.S. Go Tiger!
Day 12:
***Iceland
Update*** I know some of you took the Vegas line on Iceland winning their first
gold medal. However their #1 ranked Handball team was SHOCKED in the
Quarterfinals by a much Hungrier team. The Hungry goaltender stood
on his head for most of the first half, and Iceland finally fell in double
overtime.
The
USA picked up a bronze medal in women’s boxing when we lost a semifinals
matchup to China(both semi-finals losers in boxing get bronze). This was
an unexpected medal for us and another +1. China was expected to medal in
this event and will. In the Women’s Middle weight boxing we won the semi-finals
match and will get a medal tomorrow in the event, which will give us a +1 at
that point. China got the bronze, an expected medal.
In
Women’s wrestling we weren’t projected to medal but had a women who won the
Bronze Medal for a +1. China won a medal as expected in wrestling.
Crushing
loss for our men’s Volleyball team. They were not projected to medal but
had a great preliminary round. Oh well. Same goes for our
water polo team that got dominated by Croatia. Not expected to
medal. This means we can’t be + in Team Sports but are projected to win 4
Gold’s and 1 sliver and all are set up in good shape to do so.
Track
and Field took center stage again.
In
the Women’s Long Jump we were projected to get 2 medals. Brittney Reese had a
great 2nd jump and just chilled her way to Gold. Janay Deloach
on the other hand was sitting in 4th most of the event after a
Latvian woman had the jump of her life and was sitting in third. But
Janay stepped up and in her 5th jump beat the Latvian by .01 of a
Meter. HUGE win here to hold serve.
In
the Women’s hurdles we had the reigning world champ in Delmas and were
projected to get 1 medal. We had 3 racers in the event but only ended up
with the Silver because a hot Russian chick won Gold.
In
the Women’s 200 we were favored to get 2 medals and got 2 Gold for Felix the heavy
favorite. It was an event we could have gone 1,2,3 but Richard-Ross
seemed gassed and got a terrible start. Finally in the Men’s 110 Hurdles
we were projected to get 2 medals and were the heavy favorites to finish 1st
and 2nd. We did not disappoint by capturing the Gold and Silver.
All
in all we were projected to get 7 medals and got 7. Talk about stepping
up!!!!
That
said according to my projections I think we are looking pretty good. I
think as a secondary benefit we should be shooting for 100 overall medals and
beating China in the Gold Category.
Thursday
Day 13:
Both
China and the USA have boxers in Gold Medal bouts. In Diving China is a
heavy favorite to get 2 medals. Gold Medal Game in Soccer and Water Polo
so we are guaranteed a medal in those. Two more Taekwondo events and
China is favored in one of them.
In
Track in Field we have 5 medal events and the USA is projected to get 5 medals
in those events. Finally we have the USA favored in one of the two
Wrestling Events.
Day
13 projections, 5 Medals for China and 8 for the USA
look for us to widen our lead and not look back!
Coming
tomorrow, complete Friday-Sunday viewing/following guide.
PS-
Add one to China’s total below because they will win one in Taekwondo as
expected I just didn’t feel like sticking around to see if it was a gold or a
silver
|
2012
Olympics US Snapshot Day 12
|
|||||||
|
Country
|
Overall
|
Gold
|
Silver
|
Bronze
|
+/-
|
Prediction
|
MJ Projections
|
|
USA
|
81
|
34
|
22
|
25
|
+12
|
88
|
100
|
|
China
|
76
|
35
|
22
|
19
|
-2
|
94
|
92
|
|
Team
Sports
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
M-Basketball
|
R4
August 10th -vs- Argentina
|
||||||
|
W-Basketball
|
R4
August 9th -vs- Australia
|
||||||
|
W-Volleyball
|
R4
August 9th -vs- Italy/Korea
|
||||||
|
W-Water
Polo
|
Championship
August 9th -vs- Spain
|
||||||
|
W-Soccer
|
Championship
August 9th -vs- Japan
|
||||||
|
Boxing
|
|||||||
|
W
Middle Sheilds
|
R4
August 9th Gold Medal Match -vs- Russia
|
||||||
My Two Cents:
Not much to add. I'll provide the link for the daily Viewing Guide. Definitely want to watch the gold medal women's soccer match between Japan and the US of A. Should be a great rematch of the World Cup final.
USA USA USA!!!
P.S. Go Tiger!
Wednesday, August 8, 2012
Summer Olympics 2012: Day 11 Update
As I've said before, this is a HUGE week for the USA. In the word's of Mike Jameson, we pretty much held serve yesterday as far as medals go. And our team sports dominated. The women's beach volleyball will be an all-USA gold medal match, so we are guaranteed a gold and silver there - which I don't think were projected. And knocking off China is always a plus.
Day 11
Maybe the biggest win today was in Beach Volleyball where our Women’s team knocked off a team from China in the semi-finals. The other Women’s Team is playing later but I wanted to get this out before I left work for the day.
My Two Cents:
Have I mentioned how glad I am that women's gymnastics are over? I guess those events are pretty tough and having an "off day" basically means you do not win a medal. But man....after Gabby Douglas' performance in the team events and the all-around, I really expected a better showing in the individuals. I think she got 7th or 8th in all her individual events. Disappointing. Guess it's back to the gym for the next four years - 14 hours a day, 7 days a week. Fun life.
Let's see what is on tap for today. As always, check out the daily Olympic Viewing Guide for a full breakdown of all the events today. I will highlight the high-profile events below:
11:00am - Volleyball Men - USA v. Italy - Quarterfinals - NBC: Once we get to the knock-out stage in the team sports, almost every USA team game is a must-watch. This one is live on NBC. Should be a cake-walk, but you never know in the Olympics.
3:05pm - Field - Women's Long Jump - Computer: American Brittney Reese is projected to win gold. So we have that going for us, which is nice.
3:45pm - Track - Women's 400M Hurdles Finals - Computer: The two Americans competing had the 3rd and 4th best qualifying times. Maybe we can sneak 2 medals here?
4:00pm - Beach Volleyball - Women: USA v. USA - Computer: I'd argue that a USA v. USA match kinda takes the drama out of the event. So unless you are an avid Misty May-Treanor/Kerri Walsh-Toomanylastnamesandhyphens fan, I wouldn't call this one a "must watch." Spoiler Alert: the USA wins gold AND silver medals!
4:15pm - Track - Men's 110M Hurdles Finals - Computer: 2 Americans with the best two qualifying times. If there ever was a time for the USA to put all the "choaking" behind them, this is the event. We could take silver/gold in the beach volleyball followed by silver/gold in this event. Like I said, could be a huge medal day for the USA.
5:15pm - Basketball - Men's USA v. Australia - Quarterfinals - NBC Sports Network: Again, knock-out stage so it's compelling even if we win by 40....which we should.
After today we should have a pretty good idea of where we stand in the fight against China!
USA USA USA!!!
Day 11
Well
Gymnastics were center stage in the early morning. Once again Gabby USA’s
Golden Girl choked… She did come through with 2 gold’s for the USA but
you got to step up and dominate now, and not be “tired”. Good news is
after somewhat of a debacle(will be entertaining to watch tonight) Raisman won
the Bronze for the USA which makes up for us losing a projected medal in Men’s
Parallel bars. Unfortunately China held serve in both of those events
winning 2 medals including both gold’s. The good news is Raisman stepped
up again(guess she wasn’t “tired”) and won GOLD in the floor. Even Better
China lost 2 in that event that they were supposed to win.
In
Diving China was projected to get 2 medals and they held serve and got 2.
We
won a medal as expected in Cycling but China picked up an unexpected one as well.
Big
day for Women’s Team Sports. USA Women’s Basketball Team(The real dream
team of this Olympics if there is such a thing) won easily. HUGE win in
the Semi-finals of Water Polo for the USA, which will guarantee them a
medal. In Women’s volleyball the team dominated the DR to move on.
Maybe the biggest win today was in Beach Volleyball where our Women’s team knocked off a team from China in the semi-finals. The other Women’s Team is playing later but I wanted to get this out before I left work for the day.
In
Track and Field USA High Jump favorite Jesse Williams got knocked out early..
This was a pretty big choke job and I’m sure you will see his sulking routine
tonight on NBC. However his teammate Kynard(with the best socks of the
Olympics, RG3 would be jealous) came through with a medal so it didn’t cost us
a +/-.
In
the Women’s 110 hurdles we were projected to get 1 medal and got 2 in a great
race and we almost knocked of the defending champ from Australia(who finally
got a gold medal) .. Great race and we finished 2,3 and LoLo Jones finished
4.
Finally
just minutes ago in the 1500, the USA pulled a great upset and got the
silver. We darn near almost got the bronze too but Morocco the 1500 power
nudged our guy at the very end.
Remember
it might seem like a bad day because China won so many more medals. But
remember this is why I do it. China was expected to get 10 and they
only got 9. They could have really been in trouble if they didn’t get
that many today. We were only expected to get 4 and got 6. Couple
that with some team wins and it was a GREAT day for the U-S-A!
Day
12
Women’s
Beach Volleyball finals and we are guaranteed at least 1 and hopefully 2
medals. We weren’t projected to medal(ranked #4 and #5 coming in) here and
China was, so if we win and China loses the Bronze medal game could be a 3
medal swing.
China
will get a medal in Table Tennis which concludes tomorrow(thank god) however
Judo starts and China is projected to pick a medal up there.
There
are only 4 Track and Field events tomorrow but we are projected to pick
up 7 MEDALS!!!! Not
much margin for error here.
Finally
freestyle wrestling starts tomorrow and we have 2 women that are ranked #5 and
#8, so maybe we can steal a medal there.
In
Team sports a couple of big matchups in Men’s Volleyball and Water Polo.
And we have 2 Women boxers in the semi-finals including one against
China.
Wednesday
projections China 4 medals, USA 7.
Coming
Soon
I
made some changes and cleaned up the boxing a little. If the USA or China
were eliminated and were supposed to win a medal I reflected that in the +/-
rating. This gave the USA an additional -1 and China an additional
-2. Once again this is to reflect a more accurate indication on where we are
at right now. I am working on a viewer’s guide for this weekend which
will list every medal event left and what impact it has.
|
2012
Olympics US Snapshot Day 11
|
|||||||
|
Country
|
Overall
|
Gold
|
Silver
|
Bronze
|
+/-
|
Prediction
|
MJ Projections
|
|
USA
|
70
|
30
|
19
|
21
|
+10
|
88
|
98
|
|
China
|
73
|
34
|
21
|
18
|
-1
|
94
|
93
|
|
Team
Sports
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
M-Basketball
|
R8
August 8th -vs- Australia
|
||||||
|
W-Basketball
|
R4
August 9th -vs- Australia
|
||||||
|
M-Volleyball
|
R8
August 8th -vs- Italy
|
||||||
|
W-Volleyball
|
R4
August 9th -vs- Italy/Korea
|
||||||
|
M-Water
Polo
|
R8
August 8th -vs- Croatia
|
||||||
|
W-Water
Polo
|
Championship
August 9th -vs- Spain
|
||||||
|
W-Soccer
|
Championship
August 9th -vs- Japan
|
||||||
|
Beach
Volleyball
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
W-Trenor/Walsh
|
Championship
August 8th -vs-
|
||||||
|
W-Kessy/Ross
|
R4
August 7th -vs- Brazil
|
||||||
|
Boxing
|
|||||||
|
W-Fly
Esparaza
|
R4
August 8th -vs- CHINA
|
||||||
|
W
Middle Sheilds
|
R4
August 8th -vs- Kazakastan
|
||||||
|
M
Welter
|
R8 August 7th
|
||||||
My Two Cents:
Have I mentioned how glad I am that women's gymnastics are over? I guess those events are pretty tough and having an "off day" basically means you do not win a medal. But man....after Gabby Douglas' performance in the team events and the all-around, I really expected a better showing in the individuals. I think she got 7th or 8th in all her individual events. Disappointing. Guess it's back to the gym for the next four years - 14 hours a day, 7 days a week. Fun life.
Let's see what is on tap for today. As always, check out the daily Olympic Viewing Guide for a full breakdown of all the events today. I will highlight the high-profile events below:
11:00am - Volleyball Men - USA v. Italy - Quarterfinals - NBC: Once we get to the knock-out stage in the team sports, almost every USA team game is a must-watch. This one is live on NBC. Should be a cake-walk, but you never know in the Olympics.
3:05pm - Field - Women's Long Jump - Computer: American Brittney Reese is projected to win gold. So we have that going for us, which is nice.
3:45pm - Track - Women's 400M Hurdles Finals - Computer: The two Americans competing had the 3rd and 4th best qualifying times. Maybe we can sneak 2 medals here?
4:00pm - Beach Volleyball - Women: USA v. USA - Computer: I'd argue that a USA v. USA match kinda takes the drama out of the event. So unless you are an avid Misty May-Treanor/Kerri Walsh-Toomanylastnamesandhyphens fan, I wouldn't call this one a "must watch." Spoiler Alert: the USA wins gold AND silver medals!
4:15pm - Track - Men's 110M Hurdles Finals - Computer: 2 Americans with the best two qualifying times. If there ever was a time for the USA to put all the "choaking" behind them, this is the event. We could take silver/gold in the beach volleyball followed by silver/gold in this event. Like I said, could be a huge medal day for the USA.
5:15pm - Basketball - Men's USA v. Australia - Quarterfinals - NBC Sports Network: Again, knock-out stage so it's compelling even if we win by 40....which we should.
After today we should have a pretty good idea of where we stand in the fight against China!
USA USA USA!!!
Tuesday, August 7, 2012
Summer Olympics 2012: Day 10 Update
We are back with the daily blog posts updating you on how the USA is doing in the 2012 Summer Olympics. As always, a special thanks to my cousin Mike for generating the emails that I use as a basis for these blog posts.
A fairly up and down weekend for the USA. We are still neck and neck with China for overall medals. China has a huge advantage today with the individual gymnastics events. But we have a pretty sizable advantage in the Track and Field events, as well as the team sporting events that are still going on (W Soccer, M/W Basketball, etc.).
No "My Two Cents" today as I have to leave the office shortly. Below is Mike's Day 10 recap and Day 11 preview. And don't forget to check out the Daily Olympic Viewing Guide here.
Day 10:
Well Day 10 was pretty boring day for the most part. Not a ton of medals or movement.
USA USA USA!!!
A fairly up and down weekend for the USA. We are still neck and neck with China for overall medals. China has a huge advantage today with the individual gymnastics events. But we have a pretty sizable advantage in the Track and Field events, as well as the team sporting events that are still going on (W Soccer, M/W Basketball, etc.).
No "My Two Cents" today as I have to leave the office shortly. Below is Mike's Day 10 recap and Day 11 preview. And don't forget to check out the Daily Olympic Viewing Guide here.
Day 10:
Well Day 10 was pretty boring day for the most part. Not a ton of medals or movement.
Gabby
blew it on the uneven bars and China stole a medal there. We got a medal
in Shooting as projected.
Good
news is 2 women boxers came up big and we got them both into the semi-finals.
In
team sports our Field hockey team went out in stunning fashion losing 7-0 to
South Africa. All of the “knock out” phases of the team sports starts
tomorrow or has already started.
The
best news of the day is our Women’s Soccer team moved on to the gold medal
matchup. For any of you that watched the game, might have been the best
soccer game I have ever seen and maybe the signature event of the Olympics thus
far. Unbelievable end to end action…. Much better game to watch then the
World Cup mens action, it was constant fast breaks back and forth.
In
Beach Volleyball the team of Gibbs/Rosenthal lost to the higher seeded Latvian
team. This is a crushing loss after being up 1-0 and having a lead in the
2nd that would have advanced the team to the semi-finals. We
lost one here because the other men’s team was favored for the
gold.
In
Track and Field we lost one in shot put but won an unexpected medal back in
Women’s Javilin. In Track we won a medal as expeted in the 400 hurdles
but lost one in the 400.
Day
11:
This
is when everything starts to heat up. Now that we are into knock out in
team sports as well as Beach Volley ball and Boxing as well as individual
events in Track and Field and Gymnastics’ it’s when the Olympics really gets
fun.
Women’s
Basketball, Volleyball and Water Polo plays tomorrow. We also have 2
different teams in the semi-finals of Women’s Beach volleyball.
In
Cycling we are favored for 1 medal. The final 4 Gymnastic medals, we are
only favored for 1 but hopefully the Gymnastic teams will step up because we
have a lot of people ranked 4-6 in these events.
In
Track and Field there are only 4 medal events and we are projected to pick up 2
medals there.
We
are projected to win 4 medals on Tuesday while
China is projected to win an astounding 10 including 6
alone in Gymnastics!
|
2012
Olympics US Snapshot Day 10
|
||||||
|
Country
|
Overall
|
Gold
|
Silver
|
Bronze
|
+/-
|
Prediction
|
|
USA
|
63
|
29
|
15
|
19
|
+8
|
88
|
|
China
|
64
|
31
|
19
|
14
|
+2
|
94
|
|
Team
Sports
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
M-Basketball
|
R8
August 8th -vs- Australia
|
|||||
|
W-Basketball
|
R8
August 7th -vs- Canada
|
|||||
|
M-Volleyball
|
R8
August 8th -vs- Italy
|
|||||
|
W-Volleyball
|
R8
August 7th -vs- Dominican Republic
|
|||||
|
M-Water
Polo
|
R8
August 8th -vs- Croatia
|
|||||
|
W-Water
Polo
|
R4
August 7th -vs- Australia
|
|||||
|
W-Soccer
|
Championship
August 9th -vs- Japan
|
|||||
|
Beach
Volleyball
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
W-Trenor/Walsh
|
R4
August 9th -vs- CHINA
|
|||||
|
W-Kessy/Ross
|
R4
August 7th -vs- Brazil
|
|||||
|
Boxing
|
||||||
|
W-Fly
Esparaza
|
R4
August 8th -vs- CHINA
|
|||||
|
W
Middle Sheilds
|
R4
August 8th -vs- Kazakastan
|
|||||
USA USA USA!!!
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