As promised, below is a list of shows that I really, really
like, but that couldn’t crack the top 10.
The “Next Best” list, if you will.
The same caveats apply here – these are mostly shows from the 21st
century, I’m only briefly commenting on why I liked the show or didn’t quite
like it enough to make the top 10 and I’ll, of course, avoid spoilers. In no particular order….
Six Feet Under:
Another HBO show (this makes 6 including the top 10), Six
Feet Under, while awesome, is just a notch below the others. This might be the darkest of the HBO
stalwarts, and rightfully so considering the show is based on a family that
owns, operates and lives on the property of a funeral home. Two great performances by Michael C. Hall and
Peter Krause, actors who also star/starred in other shows on this list.
Justified:
Perhaps there is a theme here, seeing as though Justified is
the story of Raylan Givens, a throwback wild west US Marshall, played by actor
Timothy Olyphant who also starred in Deadwood.
Or maybe great actors just tend to make the shows they star in
great. Either way, Justified is a very
cool show, with a crazy good supporting performance by Walton Goggins, who, surprise
surprise, starred in The Shield.
Lost:
Lost is an example of the network model really hurting a
quality show. By being a network show
(and for those of you who don’t know what that means, it just means a show that
airs on one of the big 4 networks – CBS, NBC, FOX and ABC), Lost typically
aired 20-24 episodes per season. As a
result, a lot of Lost episodes were lacking, as the show used the larger
episode order to focus on specific characters and their backgrounds; often a
weak point for the show. Nevertheless,
it makes this list, which means I really liked it. I had no problem whatsoever with the fact
that Lost introduced many, many mysteries that ultimately went unsolved;
probably the biggest complaint you’ll hear about the show.
The West Wing:
This is certainly the oldest show on the list, having aired
from 1999 to 2006. But it still holds up
fairly well, and is the staple show that all future shows about politics and
the White House would try to live up to.
Great dialogue and performances all around, with creator Aaron Sorkin at
the top of his game. It’s another
network show, so you won’t get the sex/language/violence that you’ll see on a
newer politically charged show like House of Cards (Netflix), but ultimately I
don’t think that hurt The West Wing.
The Good Wife:
Here is another show that I had virtually no interest in
watching, kept hearing it was good and then finally gave in and played catch
up. A quality legal drama that mixes in
enough other stuff to stay interesting, and has ongoing storylines that keep it
from being your typical CBS “procedural” where each episode has its own story
that concludes at episode’s end. Once
again, great performances, this time by Julianna Margulies, Christine Baranski,
Josh Charles, Chris Noth and others, and probably the show that utilizes the
best guest performances/actors (especially great guest actors as recurring
judges). This is another network show,
so there are A LOT of episodes to catch up on, but they are a “quick watch.”
Homeland:
Homeland, of all the shows on this “Next Best” list probably
had the best shot to crack the top 10.
Season 1 was amazing and most of season 2 was just as good. But the show dipped a bit towards the end of
season 2, and then struggled in season 3 when it couldn’t decide what to do
with one of its main characters. Homeland
has just the right combination of terrorism and CIA spy stuff that if Season 4
regains the show’s early momentum, I may have to revisit my top 10 at some
point down the road.
Sons of Anarchy:
If you liked The Shield, then you are likely to enjoy
SOA. It was created by Kurt Sutter, who
was a staff writer for The Shield, and wrote most of the crazy, effed up
scenes/episodes from that show’s run, which is very evident here. I never
thought I’d enjoy a show about biker gangs, but again, that’s judging a book by
its cover. The show mixes the violence
surrounding biker gangs with some good family drama, and has arguably the worst
mother character of all time in Gemma Teller (Katey Segal). And by worst, I mean she’s a horrible and
nasty person (it’s a great performance).
Parenthood:
Parenthood is basically Friday Night Lights, but instead of
high school football, you have a big nuclear family and all of its drama. It’s created by Jason Katims, the same guy
who created FNL, so this shouldn’t be a surprise. I’m not sure this is a show for everyone – if
you love Breaking Bad, Sopranos, 24, etc., then you likely will find Parenthood
lacking. There’s no violence or
suspense. Instead, it’s just a great
family drama with interesting performances.
Rumor has it the show is also a major tear jerker. But of course I
wouldn’t know that because I’m a manly man who doesn’t cry….
Treme:
Likely the least popular show on this list by far, Treme is
a barely watched show set in a post-Katrina New Orleans. If you asked me to describe the plot, this is
pretty much all I could come up with: the show follows multiple characters
around in their life after Hurricane Katrina.
Clearly, not much happens plot wise, but Treme is still a super fun show
to watch. The performances are great –
it was created by David Simon, the same guy who created The Wire – so there are
a lot of the same actors from that show, including Clarke Peters (Lester from
The Wire) and Wendell Pierce (The Bunk).
They are both awesome. And the
music is great.
Dexter:
Dexter seems to be the show that most people were surprised didn’t
make my Top 10, or at least commented about how it was one of their favorite TV
dramas. Season 1 was fantastic, as was
season 4. 2 and 3 were good. But the rest?
Meh. By the 2nd or 3rd
season, all you really cared about was Dexter (Michael C. Hall) and whether he
would continue to get away with being a Miami Metro PD blood splatter analyst
who moonlights as a serial killer who only kills bad guys. 8 seasons of that was a little tiring. So were the supporting characters.
Shameless:
Shameless is clearly a drama, despite the fact that it was
placed in the comedy category for the Emmy awards this past season. And since I really like the show, I’m putting
it on this list. I would probably
classify it as a dark dramedy, as the show is based on the Gallagher family; a
bunch of misfits whose dad Frank (William H. Macy) is a disgusting drunk who
rarely makes it home at night. One of
the few shows where the kid actors carry the load successfully (though Macy is,
predictably, great).
Finally, below are some new (ish) shows that have shown promise,
but will have to sustain that promise for a few more seasons before they are
candidates for the Top 10 or Next Best.
The Americans: Great premise: two Russian KGB spies pose as
a regular married American couple during the Cold War era. Season 1 was good. Season 2 was great. Could see this one rising quickly.
True Detective: Only one season and it was a doozy (do people
still say that?). Knock out performances
by Matthew McConaughey and Woody Harrelson and an interesting, dark premise
made this show a true breakout hit for HBO this year. However, it’s an “anthology series”, which
means season 2 will have an entirely new cast of characters and premise. Just yesterday, HBO confirmed that Colin
Farrell and Vince Vaughn are signed on for season 2. Sign me up as well.
Fargo: Another anthology series, Fargo successfully
adapted the Coen Brothers’ most iconic movie into a TV show that was
spectacular in its first season. If it
never aired again, Fargo would make the “Next Best” list – it was that
good. No clue what Season 2 has in
store, but I’ll be watching.
The Leftovers: The first season of The Leftovers just
concluded, and frankly, I loved it. I
don’t think it’s for everyone though, as it was very dark and depressing (Premise:
2% of the World’s population randomly disappears one day without explanation). Co-created by Damon Lindelof (Lost), it
introduced a lot of mysteries without answers, something Lost fans HATED. I clearly didn’t mind.
The Bridge: Another cool premise and setting – the “bridge”
being the one that connects Juarez, Mexico and El Paso, Texas. The first season was good, but had its
weaknesses. Season 2 has been really
good so far, though no one is watching and FX hasn’t ordered a 3rd
season yet.
Hannibal: An interesting “new” look at an old story –
that of Hannibal Lecter. The first 2
seasons cover Hannibal’s early years, before he was discovered to be a
cannibalistic serial killer. And season
3 will apparently cover the “Red Dragon” period. It’s a little weird, but in my opinion that’s
what makes it good – it’s not just an attempt to copycat the tired Hannibal
Lecter story.
Rectify: Tough to explain this one. The premise: due to new DNA evidence, Daniel
Holden is released from prison after spending 15 years on death row. Not much action. Just a slow, interesting look at Daniel’s
reintegration process and the toll it takes on those around him.
Orange is the New
Black: Another show where I am sort
of “cheating”, in that, like Shameless, it was classified as a comedy for the
Emmy’s. It’s certainly a funny show, but
anyone who has seen it knows it is more drama than comedy. Everything about the premise would ordinarily
keep me away – a suburban 30 year old white girl ends up in a women’s federal
prison for a crime she committed years ago with her drug dealer girlfriend –
but I loved the first 2 seasons. Yes, I
like this show better than House of Cards, Netflix’s other big hit, which
frankly, isn’t even making this list.
So, what do you think? Other than House of Cards, did I miss any
shows that you think are great?
Hopefully you can use these lists as a place to go to when you are
looking for a new show to watch and don’t want to waste your time on a new
network show that will likely be cancelled in a month.
Thanks for reading!
Friday, September 26, 2014
Tuesday, September 23, 2014
Ranking the Top 10 TV Dramas
Ok, enough sports posts already, right? After all, the headline of this blog says
it’s a blog about sports, TV and whatever else is on my mind. I have written a lot about sports
lately. And that usually mixes in
whatever else is on my mind. So now it’s
time to focus on TV.
I have been meaning to write this blog post for a while now, ranking what I consider to be the top 10 TV dramas of all time. First, some caveats: (a) this list is 100% my opinion based on shows that I have watched; I am not trying to be a TV critic here, so there is absolutely NO weight given to how the public perceives a show or how trendy a show might be; (b) I have watched very few TV dramas that took place primarily in the 1990s or earlier, so you’ll see that reflected in the rankings; (c) I am ranking the top 10 in order, and then will have a “Next Best” post later in the week that will touch on shows that, in many cases I really loved, but couldn’t fit into the top 10 and also shows that are new(er) and have shown promise, but they will need to sustain that promise for a few seasons before they come close to cracking the Top 10 or even the Next Best list; (d) this is not intended to be a review/recap of each series – I am going to avoid spoilers and just give a brief thought on each show and why it ranks where it does; and (e) I’m going to include a video clip for each show, most likely a scene that I would consider to be one of the show’s best/most fun scenes. Some of them may contain spoilers, so if you haven’t seen the show and plan to watch it, don’t click on the video!
#9: Boardwalk Empire
Boardwalk Empire is another show that I could have left off the top 10 list, but I like it just a touch more than some of the “Next Best”, mostly for the setting (1920’s Atlantic City gangster drama) and the characters/actors/performances. Steve Buscemi is great as the “lead”, but he arguably takes a back seat to some supporting characters throughout each season (including Michael Kenneth Williams aka Omar from “The Wire”). If you were looking for BE to be the next Sopranos, then you probably have been disappointed with it. Now in its final season, Boardwalk Empire has a chance to move up a spot or two if it really sticks the landing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YYHxOdqepl8
#8: Friday Night Lights
Friday Night Lights is probably the most out of place show on this list. Not because it is bad or undeserving, but because it is the only show here that could be described as a “family drama”, with virtually no violence or any need for a TV-MA rating. For anyone who has avoided watching FNL because you think it’s a “football show”, you are sorely mistaken. It’s truly a fantastic look at high school football in Texas (and really, high school in general), mostly through the eyes of the head coach’s family. Great, great performances by all the “kids”, and even better by “Coach and Mrs. Coach”, Kyle Chandler and Connie Britton.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n_kRT3EuQ3k
#7: 24
There was a time when I thought 24 would be my favorite show of all time (“Jack Bauer” as a name for a cat?). That was during law school when I “caught up” with 24 – and by caught up I mean binge-watched 4 seasons (24 episodes in a season, about 17 hours of running time) in the span of maybe 6-8 months. If 24 had ended after season 5, it would almost definitely be in the top 5 on this list. But it didn’t, and seasons 6-8 were average at best; still fun though, and I watched almost every episode live. 24 returned again this past summer, and while it wasn’t quite up to the standards of seasons 1-5, it was pretty darn great and I was glad to have Jack Bauer in my life again. Hopefully it continues.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O5QCJHltPnw
#6: The Shield
If Game of Thrones is the most controversial show on the list, then The Shield is likely a close 2nd and probably the most unknown. I recommend The Shield to pretty much everyone I know that is looking for a “new” show to watch, and I use quotes there because the final season of The Shield aired 6 years ago! It was an FX cop drama, and frankly, maybe the best pure cop drama ever (depending on how you classify my #1 show). Just do yourself a favor – if you are looking for a show to catch up on, rent/buy/borrow The Shield, and thank me later.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0K9iRKm-nEY
#5: Mad Men
Mad Men can often be labeled as “boring,” simply because the show doesn’t involve anything that most people would classify as “action.” Mad Men is not boring. It’s great. Set in the 1960s NYC advertising world, and created by former Sopranos staff writer Matthew Weiner, the show has a lot of the same elements as The Sopranos, just without the whackings. Of all the antiheros on TV these days, Don Draper might just be my favorite. The things he does are loathsome, and yet for some reason you root for him every step of the way; most likely because of Jon Hamm’s magnetic presence on screen. I’m going to repeat this principle again later on, but if you give Mad Men a chance, watch at least 4-5 episodes. You can’t judge a show based on 1 or 2 episodes, and too often I hear “I watched the first episode and it just didn’t really interest me.” Mad Men will interest you. I promise.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=suRDUFpsHus
#4: Deadwood
Another show here that most people I talk to have yet to watch, and what a big mistake that is. I think Deadwood gets overshadowed by the other HBO stalwarts, The Sopranos and The Wire, and unfairly so. This is maybe the most unique show on the list, blending an interesting time period (1800s gold rush) with some of the most vulgar and unique language of any show that has ever aired on TV. Also, Deadwood might be the most violent show on the list, despite not really having a reputation for violence. The two main characters, Al Swearingen (Ian McShane – you might recognize his voice as the voiceover during the British Open telecasts) and Seth Bullock (Timothy Olyphant – his best role ever) are both incredible and have incredibly combustible tempers that create a fun and thrilling partnership. Deadwood, like all HBO shows, is available on HBOGo, a free service for all HBO subscribers (and allows unlimited “log ins” if you want to borrow someone else’s password). There were only 3 seasons of Deadwood before it was abruptly cancelled. So if you are one of those people who feel overwhelmed starting a new series that has 4, 5, 6 seasons, Deadwood is the show for you.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jX1m6cw8bSo
#3: The Sopranos
It’s kinda crazy to me that a show as amazing as The Sopranos ranks 3rd on my list. I am in the middle of a re-watch right now (starting from episode 1 and continuing through the entire series) with Kait (my wife, who is watching it for the first time), and I am even more blown away by its greatness than I was when I originally watched the series. The Sopranos is so great that no one has even attempted to create another mafia series since. Sure, Boardwalk Empire is generally about the mafia and organized crime, but that is a historical piece with real life Mafiosos created by a guy (Terrance Winter) who wrote for The Sopranos. It has virtually no other similarities. The Sopranos is also likely the one show on this list that has been watched, at least in parts, by the most people. While it may be surprising to see it ranked “only” 3rd, I never (even for a second) considered moving it up. That’s because my top 2 are basically perfect TV shows.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g6VnAdxMaeU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BCa0mHmxvQ0
(These last 3 shows need multiple clips each)
#2: Breaking Bad
I know the trendy thing right now would be to put Breaking Bad #1 and call it the greatest TV show ever. And frankly, I couldn’t argue with that assessment. I can’t really think of a single negative thing I could say about this show. Maybe, MAYBE you could say that the first season is a little slow. That it really doesn’t become the Breaking Bad we all know and love until the last episode or two of the first season (you might recall that the first season of Breaking Bad aired during the writer’s strike, and thus it was only 7 episodes long, as opposed to the 13 episodes most of the future seasons had). But that is a minor quibble, and really, every show is slower and a little more boring during the first few episodes while it settles in and finds it voice. Once it found its voice though? Wow. Breaking Bad became a non-stop thrill ride, without a doubt the tensest show on this list (and maybe of all time). And Bryan Cranston as Walter White puts on the performance of a lifetime. Has there ever been a better character on TV? I don’t think so. However, I do think there has been a better show….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_IjrX5BdllQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cWfK5JyD2bA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WbIVV9cVveo
#1: The Wire
The Wire is the greatest TV drama, probably TV show in general, of all time. That is my opinion. You can argue with me about it, you can make the case for Breaking Bad or for The Sopranos, but my opinion will stand. I don’t remember how I got into The Wire initially. Most likely it was from reading Alan Sepinwall, TV critic for the website Hitfix and formerly a TV critic for the New Jersey Star Ledger (the newspaper that Tony Soprano famously walks to the end of his driveway to retrieve in so many episodes of The Sopranos). At the time, no one that I regularly discussed TV shows with had seen The Wire. I became so enthralled with it that I bought all the seasons on DVD and immediately began lending them out to friends and family members, hoping that someone else would see the brilliance in this show. Thankfully, almost everyone I loaned the DVDs to enjoyed the show as much as I did. And I would bet that The Wire would rank somewhere in their top 3 TV shows of all-time list as well. Borrow my DVDs, watch on HBOGo, or find the episodes On Demand. Whatever you do, please make it a point to watch The Wire if you have not done so already, so that you can enjoy the decay of the city of Baltimore from the viewpoint of drug dealers, druggies, police officers and politicians alike. I’m almost positive there will never be another show quite like it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=20G17K_0ghU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vx0xulrOsgQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=91CpbRq9Tiw
I have been meaning to write this blog post for a while now, ranking what I consider to be the top 10 TV dramas of all time. First, some caveats: (a) this list is 100% my opinion based on shows that I have watched; I am not trying to be a TV critic here, so there is absolutely NO weight given to how the public perceives a show or how trendy a show might be; (b) I have watched very few TV dramas that took place primarily in the 1990s or earlier, so you’ll see that reflected in the rankings; (c) I am ranking the top 10 in order, and then will have a “Next Best” post later in the week that will touch on shows that, in many cases I really loved, but couldn’t fit into the top 10 and also shows that are new(er) and have shown promise, but they will need to sustain that promise for a few seasons before they come close to cracking the Top 10 or even the Next Best list; (d) this is not intended to be a review/recap of each series – I am going to avoid spoilers and just give a brief thought on each show and why it ranks where it does; and (e) I’m going to include a video clip for each show, most likely a scene that I would consider to be one of the show’s best/most fun scenes. Some of them may contain spoilers, so if you haven’t seen the show and plan to watch it, don’t click on the video!
So, without further ado, I present the Shots of Jame-O Top
10 TV Dramas.
#10: Game of Thrones
This is likely to be the most controversial of the shows
that are ranked. Some people would
probably have this show ranked in the top 5 no doubt about it. And some refuse to watch a “fantasy” show
with dragons. The bottom line is that Game
of Thrones is really, really good show that has a chance to be great if it
continues to improve. I was firmly in
the “won’t watch a dragon show” camp after the first season or two. But there was enough buzz about the show
being great that I gave it a shot, and all the great things I had heard were right
on the money. I’m not sure I know a
single person who started watching GoT (more than a couple episodes) and didn’t
enjoy it.
#9: Boardwalk Empire
Boardwalk Empire is another show that I could have left off the top 10 list, but I like it just a touch more than some of the “Next Best”, mostly for the setting (1920’s Atlantic City gangster drama) and the characters/actors/performances. Steve Buscemi is great as the “lead”, but he arguably takes a back seat to some supporting characters throughout each season (including Michael Kenneth Williams aka Omar from “The Wire”). If you were looking for BE to be the next Sopranos, then you probably have been disappointed with it. Now in its final season, Boardwalk Empire has a chance to move up a spot or two if it really sticks the landing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YYHxOdqepl8
#8: Friday Night Lights
Friday Night Lights is probably the most out of place show on this list. Not because it is bad or undeserving, but because it is the only show here that could be described as a “family drama”, with virtually no violence or any need for a TV-MA rating. For anyone who has avoided watching FNL because you think it’s a “football show”, you are sorely mistaken. It’s truly a fantastic look at high school football in Texas (and really, high school in general), mostly through the eyes of the head coach’s family. Great, great performances by all the “kids”, and even better by “Coach and Mrs. Coach”, Kyle Chandler and Connie Britton.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n_kRT3EuQ3k
#7: 24
There was a time when I thought 24 would be my favorite show of all time (“Jack Bauer” as a name for a cat?). That was during law school when I “caught up” with 24 – and by caught up I mean binge-watched 4 seasons (24 episodes in a season, about 17 hours of running time) in the span of maybe 6-8 months. If 24 had ended after season 5, it would almost definitely be in the top 5 on this list. But it didn’t, and seasons 6-8 were average at best; still fun though, and I watched almost every episode live. 24 returned again this past summer, and while it wasn’t quite up to the standards of seasons 1-5, it was pretty darn great and I was glad to have Jack Bauer in my life again. Hopefully it continues.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O5QCJHltPnw
#6: The Shield
If Game of Thrones is the most controversial show on the list, then The Shield is likely a close 2nd and probably the most unknown. I recommend The Shield to pretty much everyone I know that is looking for a “new” show to watch, and I use quotes there because the final season of The Shield aired 6 years ago! It was an FX cop drama, and frankly, maybe the best pure cop drama ever (depending on how you classify my #1 show). Just do yourself a favor – if you are looking for a show to catch up on, rent/buy/borrow The Shield, and thank me later.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0K9iRKm-nEY
#5: Mad Men
Mad Men can often be labeled as “boring,” simply because the show doesn’t involve anything that most people would classify as “action.” Mad Men is not boring. It’s great. Set in the 1960s NYC advertising world, and created by former Sopranos staff writer Matthew Weiner, the show has a lot of the same elements as The Sopranos, just without the whackings. Of all the antiheros on TV these days, Don Draper might just be my favorite. The things he does are loathsome, and yet for some reason you root for him every step of the way; most likely because of Jon Hamm’s magnetic presence on screen. I’m going to repeat this principle again later on, but if you give Mad Men a chance, watch at least 4-5 episodes. You can’t judge a show based on 1 or 2 episodes, and too often I hear “I watched the first episode and it just didn’t really interest me.” Mad Men will interest you. I promise.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=suRDUFpsHus
#4: Deadwood
Another show here that most people I talk to have yet to watch, and what a big mistake that is. I think Deadwood gets overshadowed by the other HBO stalwarts, The Sopranos and The Wire, and unfairly so. This is maybe the most unique show on the list, blending an interesting time period (1800s gold rush) with some of the most vulgar and unique language of any show that has ever aired on TV. Also, Deadwood might be the most violent show on the list, despite not really having a reputation for violence. The two main characters, Al Swearingen (Ian McShane – you might recognize his voice as the voiceover during the British Open telecasts) and Seth Bullock (Timothy Olyphant – his best role ever) are both incredible and have incredibly combustible tempers that create a fun and thrilling partnership. Deadwood, like all HBO shows, is available on HBOGo, a free service for all HBO subscribers (and allows unlimited “log ins” if you want to borrow someone else’s password). There were only 3 seasons of Deadwood before it was abruptly cancelled. So if you are one of those people who feel overwhelmed starting a new series that has 4, 5, 6 seasons, Deadwood is the show for you.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jX1m6cw8bSo
#3: The Sopranos
It’s kinda crazy to me that a show as amazing as The Sopranos ranks 3rd on my list. I am in the middle of a re-watch right now (starting from episode 1 and continuing through the entire series) with Kait (my wife, who is watching it for the first time), and I am even more blown away by its greatness than I was when I originally watched the series. The Sopranos is so great that no one has even attempted to create another mafia series since. Sure, Boardwalk Empire is generally about the mafia and organized crime, but that is a historical piece with real life Mafiosos created by a guy (Terrance Winter) who wrote for The Sopranos. It has virtually no other similarities. The Sopranos is also likely the one show on this list that has been watched, at least in parts, by the most people. While it may be surprising to see it ranked “only” 3rd, I never (even for a second) considered moving it up. That’s because my top 2 are basically perfect TV shows.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g6VnAdxMaeU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BCa0mHmxvQ0
(These last 3 shows need multiple clips each)
#2: Breaking Bad
I know the trendy thing right now would be to put Breaking Bad #1 and call it the greatest TV show ever. And frankly, I couldn’t argue with that assessment. I can’t really think of a single negative thing I could say about this show. Maybe, MAYBE you could say that the first season is a little slow. That it really doesn’t become the Breaking Bad we all know and love until the last episode or two of the first season (you might recall that the first season of Breaking Bad aired during the writer’s strike, and thus it was only 7 episodes long, as opposed to the 13 episodes most of the future seasons had). But that is a minor quibble, and really, every show is slower and a little more boring during the first few episodes while it settles in and finds it voice. Once it found its voice though? Wow. Breaking Bad became a non-stop thrill ride, without a doubt the tensest show on this list (and maybe of all time). And Bryan Cranston as Walter White puts on the performance of a lifetime. Has there ever been a better character on TV? I don’t think so. However, I do think there has been a better show….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_IjrX5BdllQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cWfK5JyD2bA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WbIVV9cVveo
#1: The Wire
The Wire is the greatest TV drama, probably TV show in general, of all time. That is my opinion. You can argue with me about it, you can make the case for Breaking Bad or for The Sopranos, but my opinion will stand. I don’t remember how I got into The Wire initially. Most likely it was from reading Alan Sepinwall, TV critic for the website Hitfix and formerly a TV critic for the New Jersey Star Ledger (the newspaper that Tony Soprano famously walks to the end of his driveway to retrieve in so many episodes of The Sopranos). At the time, no one that I regularly discussed TV shows with had seen The Wire. I became so enthralled with it that I bought all the seasons on DVD and immediately began lending them out to friends and family members, hoping that someone else would see the brilliance in this show. Thankfully, almost everyone I loaned the DVDs to enjoyed the show as much as I did. And I would bet that The Wire would rank somewhere in their top 3 TV shows of all-time list as well. Borrow my DVDs, watch on HBOGo, or find the episodes On Demand. Whatever you do, please make it a point to watch The Wire if you have not done so already, so that you can enjoy the decay of the city of Baltimore from the viewpoint of drug dealers, druggies, police officers and politicians alike. I’m almost positive there will never be another show quite like it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=20G17K_0ghU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vx0xulrOsgQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=91CpbRq9Tiw
So, what do you think? Did I
leave off your favorite show? Did I rank
a show too high or too low in your opinion?
Be sure to check back sometime over the next week when I break down my “Next Best”
list, which includes 10 shows that I really, really liked, but for one reason
or another couldn’t crack the top 10.
Monday, September 15, 2014
A Very Bad Week for the NFL
As most of you are aware, the National Football League (NFL) just had arguably the worst week from a PR standpoint in the league's history. The two major story lines involved two of the more successful, fan-favorite running backs in the league, Ray Rice (formerly of the Baltimore Ravens) and Adrian Peterson of the Minnesota Vikings. These stories were so huge that they essentially rendered everything else that happened last week in the NFL irrelevant, including a major change to the league's drug policy that will reduce suspensions for two of the league's premier wide receivers (Wes Welker and Josh Gordon). Before getting into the particulars of the two stories, I want to say first and foremost that domestic violence and child abuse are two very serious issues that have absolutely no place in sport or in society in general. Those who engage in domestic violence and/or child abuse should be punished to the fullest extent of the law. Unfortunately, the law becomes a little distorted when we are dealing with superstar athletes who are also employees of the NFL and members of the NFL's players association, organizations that have their own "laws" and rules that govern such atrocious behavior. Add in the media and our never ending, 24/7 news and social media outlets, and these stories tend to take on a life of their own, where the culprits are punished and penalized in ways that do not conform to the law or the rules and regulations of the organizations to which they belong.
Ray Rice and Adrian Peterson are likely scumbags who deserve all of the public vitriol that they are receiving. If you are a superstar athlete who knocks his wife unconscious or beats his child repeatedly with a stick, this is what happens. The problem, however, is the way that the organizations who employ these scumbags handle the situations. They react, sometimes overreact, and those reactions are almost entirely based on the media/publics perceptions. Should the Ravens have cut Ray Rice? Absolutely. But why did they wait until after the video of Rice knocking out his then fiancé surfaced? What exactly changed between the time Ray Rice told the Ravens and NFL commissioner Roger Goodell that he knocked his fiancé unconscious until the video surfaced? Nothing, other than the media and public's perception of the incident. And it's that perception that caused the NFL to overreact and try to retroactively fix the issue by suspending Rice indefinitely. Again, the NFL had already suspended Rice for this incident, issuing a sickening 2 game suspension. Now, in order to try to save face, they pile on and suspend Rice indefinitely. Rice is going to appeal that suspension and frankly, I believe he should win that appeal. What changed between the initial 2 game suspension and the indefinite suspension? Absolutely nothing, other than public opinion.
As for Peterson, the Vikings announced today that he would be reinstated to the team and likely will practice and play this Sunday. Is it disgusting that an indicted child abuser will most likely be cheered on the field on Sunday, as soon as he breaks off a 10 yard run? Sure. Should the Vikings keep him deactivated simply because he was indicted for child abuse and despite the fact that he has not been convicted? No. And if they decide to cut Peterson, or if the NFL decides to issue a "Ray Rice penalty" and suspend him, then guess what? Peterson will appeal and/or sue, and he will likely win. Because again, the NFL already has rules and regulations in place that supposedly deal with these issues.
So what is my point here? My point is that just because an incident takes on a life of its own and grows into a media shitstorm does not mean it's time to throw out the rule book or rewrite that rule book on the fly. The NFL gave Rice a 2 game suspension, most likely under the belief that this video would never surface, he would serve his suspension and the incident would go away. The Vikings deactivated Peterson for this past Sunday's game, most likely because the NFL was under fire with the Ray Rice fiasco and so they didn't want to get bashed by the media/public. Unfortunately for the NFL and for the Vikings, they cannot just throw out the rule book in an effort to calm the shitstorm. They have to follow the rules. And if those rules state that Peterson can and should be active this week, then play him. If those rules state that the commissioner can issue whatever penalty he chooses, and he chooses a 2 game suspension, then that is the penalty.
There are always going to be players who are scumbags and do things that violate rules and break the law. And those players should be punished. But we can't allow the media and public perception to cloud the application of the rules and laws to these players and their actions. Or else why even have them in the first place?
Ok, now for some quick thoughts on the NFL teams and their results after (almost) 2 full weeks:
Ray Rice and Adrian Peterson are likely scumbags who deserve all of the public vitriol that they are receiving. If you are a superstar athlete who knocks his wife unconscious or beats his child repeatedly with a stick, this is what happens. The problem, however, is the way that the organizations who employ these scumbags handle the situations. They react, sometimes overreact, and those reactions are almost entirely based on the media/publics perceptions. Should the Ravens have cut Ray Rice? Absolutely. But why did they wait until after the video of Rice knocking out his then fiancé surfaced? What exactly changed between the time Ray Rice told the Ravens and NFL commissioner Roger Goodell that he knocked his fiancé unconscious until the video surfaced? Nothing, other than the media and public's perception of the incident. And it's that perception that caused the NFL to overreact and try to retroactively fix the issue by suspending Rice indefinitely. Again, the NFL had already suspended Rice for this incident, issuing a sickening 2 game suspension. Now, in order to try to save face, they pile on and suspend Rice indefinitely. Rice is going to appeal that suspension and frankly, I believe he should win that appeal. What changed between the initial 2 game suspension and the indefinite suspension? Absolutely nothing, other than public opinion.
As for Peterson, the Vikings announced today that he would be reinstated to the team and likely will practice and play this Sunday. Is it disgusting that an indicted child abuser will most likely be cheered on the field on Sunday, as soon as he breaks off a 10 yard run? Sure. Should the Vikings keep him deactivated simply because he was indicted for child abuse and despite the fact that he has not been convicted? No. And if they decide to cut Peterson, or if the NFL decides to issue a "Ray Rice penalty" and suspend him, then guess what? Peterson will appeal and/or sue, and he will likely win. Because again, the NFL already has rules and regulations in place that supposedly deal with these issues.
So what is my point here? My point is that just because an incident takes on a life of its own and grows into a media shitstorm does not mean it's time to throw out the rule book or rewrite that rule book on the fly. The NFL gave Rice a 2 game suspension, most likely under the belief that this video would never surface, he would serve his suspension and the incident would go away. The Vikings deactivated Peterson for this past Sunday's game, most likely because the NFL was under fire with the Ray Rice fiasco and so they didn't want to get bashed by the media/public. Unfortunately for the NFL and for the Vikings, they cannot just throw out the rule book in an effort to calm the shitstorm. They have to follow the rules. And if those rules state that Peterson can and should be active this week, then play him. If those rules state that the commissioner can issue whatever penalty he chooses, and he chooses a 2 game suspension, then that is the penalty.
There are always going to be players who are scumbags and do things that violate rules and break the law. And those players should be punished. But we can't allow the media and public perception to cloud the application of the rules and laws to these players and their actions. Or else why even have them in the first place?
Ok, now for some quick thoughts on the NFL teams and their results after (almost) 2 full weeks:
- Parity: The NFL has always been a league where teams can go from first to worst in a single season. Recent examples include the Houston Texans, who were contenders from 2010-2012 and then went a league worst 2-14 last year, or the Kansas City Chiefs, who were a league worst 2-14 in 2012 and went 11-5 and made the playoffs last year. 2014 is no different. As of this writing, only 6 teams are 2-0 and only 6 teams are 0-2. One of the 2-0 teams is the Buffalo Bills, something no one predicted. And one of the 0-2 teams is the New Orleans Saints, again a shocker. This parity is part of what makes the NFL so successful, despite the fact that it's made up of a bunch of scumbags.
- Sticking with the parity theme, my favorite team, the Detroit Lions, could not have looked any different from week 1 to week 2. In week 1 on Monday Night Football, they thrashed (an admittedly terrible) New York Giants team 35-14, prompting all the talking heads to discuss the Lions as the "it" team this year and maybe win the NFC North division. So what did they do in week 2? Got curb stomped by the Carolina Panthers 24-7. SOL.
- The unstoppable Seattle Seahawks were handled fairly easily by the San Diego Chargers Throwback Machine (Antonio Gates with 3 TD catches?). Thankfully for them, the San Francisco 49ers fell apart in the 4th quarter last night, giving up 3 Chicago Bears TDs in route to a 28-20 loss. As we all expected, the Arizona Cardinals lead the NFC West at 2-0.
- What a horrendous day for injuries that likely caused many fantasy footballers to scream at their TVs. Top draftees such as Jamaal Charles and AJ Green, and promising week 1 standouts like Knowshon Moreno and Ryan Mathews went down with injuries, a few before scoring even 1 fantasy point. While it stinks when your studs are out with injuries, it's even worse when they get hurt early in the game and stick you with a big, fat 0 points for the week. Hopefully Charles and Green don't miss any additional time. If they do, be sure to check your waivers for Mohammed Sanu (WR Cincy) and Knile Davis (RB Chiefs) as they both looked good Sunday. Also, I would like a redo on my RGIII prediction please. Paging Hydroworx!
Monday, August 18, 2014
Fantasy Football 2014: Bold Predictions
Alright alright alright, it's Bold Predictions time! This post always seems to be the most popular post I write each year (I guess that's not saying much, since I average about 2-3 posts a year). Fantasy football season is in full swing, with many drafts taking place this week/weekend and next. So let's make some predictions. As I did last year, I will check back in during the season to see how these predictions are looking. And a reminder - I'm trying to be bold here. Saying that Calvin Johnson will be a top 5 fantasy WR is not bold. If I get 1/3rd of these correct or mostly correct, that would be surprisingly good.
Again, props to ESPN's Matthew Berry, as this post is basically a combination of his "Love/Hate" and "You Heard Me" columns. So, without further ado, my bold predictions for Fantasy Football 2014, team by team:
Arizona Cardinals: Last year I said that the addition of Carson Palmer would help restore Larry Fitzgerald's fantasy value and he would end up as a top 3 WR. I was wrong. However, Palmer did help the Cardinals passing game, and after a year of getting comfortable with his new weapons, I think it'll be WR Michael Floyd who benefits the most. Floyd will pass Fitz as the best Cardinal WR, and will end up top 15 in fantasy points at his position.
Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons were terrible last year, mostly due to injuries. This year the weapons are healthy again and while a trendy prediction would be for Matt Ryan to bust out and be a top 5 QB, I still think he's only a borderline starter in 10-12 team leagues. But that won't stop Julio Jones from staying healthy and finishing as the top scoring WR in the NFL. Yes, #1.
Baltimore Ravens: Should I go for 3 years in a row predicting that Torrey Smith will be a stud fantasy WR? Nah, I'm over him. Instead, I think the 2 game suspension for Ray Rice will signal the passing of the torch. Grab Bernard Pierce as your flex, because I think he will thrive as the starter and emerge as a top 20 RB at season's end.
Buffalo Bills: The Bills made a huge move on draft night, trading up to the 4th pick and grabbing stud WR Sammy Watkins. I love Watkins and think he will be a perennial top 10 fantasy WR. Just not this year. The fantasy draft price for prized rookie WRs is always high and very rarely do they pan out. So let someone else draft Watkins as a top 20-25 fantasy WR because he won't finish inside the top 30. Unless you are in a keeper league, then go nuts.
Carolina Panthers: I'm about to contradict myself in back to back predictions here, as I think the Panthers' rookie WR, Kelvin Benjamin, IS worth drafting in hopes that he is flex worthy for your fantasy team. Benjamin is being drafted 50 spots later than Watkins, so there is real value here. The best reason to draft Benjamin is that the Panthers literally have NO ONE to catch passes from Cam Newton. So why can't that person be Benjamin, who is almost as much of a beast as Watkins? I say Benjamin does end up as a top 30 fantasy WR this year, outscoring Watkins.
Chicago Bears: Last year I said that RB Matt Forte would finish as a top 7 RB, despite being drafted in the 11-15 range for RBs. I was right on that one (he finished 3rd), so I'm going to double down this year in a big way: Matt Forte will finish the season as the #1 fantasy RB. He is currently being drafted in the 4-6 range. I wouldn't necessarily take him 1-3, but man do I hope to get the 4th pick in my draft this Saturday!
Cincinnati Bengals: The Bengals overpaid for Andy Dalton's services this offseason, giving him a massive contract despite the fact that he only has average talent. The Bengals also changed up offensive systems, moving to a more run-first offense. While I think the change will benefit Gio Bernard, who I think can be a top 10 fantasy RB, I'll be even bolder and say that the change will negatively effect stud WR AJ Green, who will finish the season outside of the top 10 fantasy WRs. I will happily take Calvin Johnson, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, Brandon Marshall, Julio Jones and even Jordy Nelson ahead of Green in drafts this year.
Cleveland Browns: Can I make a prediction here without mentioning rookie QB Johnny Manziel? Oops, guess not. I like Manziel but don't see him being a relevant fantasy QB (draft him as a backup if you get a stud like Manning/Brees/Rodgers). Other than Manziel, Ben Tate is the shiny new toy in town, expected to be the workhorse #1 RB for the Browns this year. The bad news is that Tate simply can't stay healthy. And this will open the door for rookie RB Terrance West to take the job and run with it to a top 25 fantasy RB season.
Dallas Cowboys: I love the Cowboys offense this year, mostly because their defense is going to be SO bad that the offense will be playing from behind most of the year. But also because they have studs at all the key positions. I believe that the Cowboys will end up with a top 10 performer at QB (Tony Romo), RB (Demarco Murray), WR (Dez Bryant) and TE (Jason Witten) this year. Not bold enough? Ok, how about WR Terrance Williams finishing as a top 20 WR? Because that is gonna happen. Also, I like the name Terrance.
Denver Broncos: Last year I predicted that Knowshon Moreno would lead the Broncos in RB points in 2013; maybe my best prediction of the year. Moreno is gone, and so Montee Ball will be the featured RB for Peyton Manning's offense in 2014. Ball is significantly more talented than Moreno and I don't expect the Broncos' offense to miss a beat. Do the math, and it adds up to Montee Ball being a 1st round pick and top 5 fantasy RB.
Detroit Lions: I just cannot win on my Lions' predictions. Titus Young in 2012 and then Ryan Broyles in 2013. Ouch. This time, I WILL triple down and say that the Lions new offensive weapon, WR Golden Tate, will thrive next to Calvin Johnson and catch 90 balls for 1200 yards and 9 TDs, good for a top 15 fantasy WR season. Also, I think rookie TE Eric Ebron will finish as a top 10 fantasy TE.
Green Bay Packers: I had no faith in RB Eddie Lacy last year, predicting that he would finish behind Jonathan Franklin here and drafting RB David Wilson over him in my long running keeper league. Lacy is now a consensus top 5 fantasy RB in drafts this year and I agree with that. I also agree with anyone who thinks that WR Randall Cobb is an emerging star. With WR James Jones heading west to Oakland, Cobb should see his targets increase, leading to a top 10 fantasy WR season.
Houston Texans: I like Arian Foster to have a bounce back year and finish as a top 10 RB. I also like Andre Johnson to bounce back and have a top 10 WR season. But those aren't really bold. Instead, let's get a little nutty here and say that the Houston Texans D/ST will finish as the top scoring fantasy defense. I still wouldn't draft them until the second to last round, but can anyone stop JJ Watt and Jadaveon Clowney?!? Yes, picking a defense is boring, so let's also say that WR DeAndre Hopkins will break out in a big way and have a top 20 fantasy WR season.
Indianapolis Colts: Remember that Trent Richardson trade and how everyone (including me) thought he would thrive with the Colts and battle for the best fantasy RB title last year? I drove the Richardson bandwagon bus last season and let's just say that the bus is now a pile of ashes at the bottom of the cliff. Rising from those ashes, however, is a now underrated Richardson. He's being drafted as a non-starter in 10 team fantasy leagues (outside the top 20 RBs), and I think that makes him a great value pick. I would take him as a top 15 fantasy RB and will boldly say that he'll finish in the top 10.
Jacksonville Jaguars: I hyped RB Maurice Jones-Drew here last year and he made me look like an idiot. However, that won't stop me from once again hyping up the Jaguars #1 RB. It just so happens that their #1 RB is not MJD, but rather Toby Gerhart, the backup RB to Adrian Peterson for the last 3 seasons. Gerhart is now a true workhorse #1 RB and I think he will be a great RB2 for fantasy purposes. I'll say that Gerhart, being drafted 26th at the position will finish as a top 15 fantasy RB.
Kansas City Chiefs: Can I get a redo on my Dwayne Bowe prediction from last year? I drafted Bowe whenever I could get my hands on him in drafts last year and man did he disappoint. Everything else for the Chiefs went well though, as Charles finished as the top fantasy RB and Alex Smith was even a little fantasy relevant at times. I don't see that good fortune continuing. RB Jamaal Charles will be that fantasy player that ruins teams in 2014 as he will finish outside the top 15 fantasy RBs.
Miami Dolphins: Here is what I wrote last year: "I do love 2nd year RB Lamar Miller. The Dolphins keep saying that Miller and RB Daniel Thomas will split carries, but I think that is BS. Look for Miller to grab the starting gig and never look back. Lamar Miller finishes 2013 as a top 15 RB." Ditto, except replace "2nd year" with "3rd year", "Daniel Thomas" with "Knowshon Moreno" and "2013" with "2014."
Minnesota Vikings: The Vikings brought in Norv Turner to run the offense, and that has caused many of the Vikings offensive weapons to shoot up draft boards. I still love RB Adrian Peterson as the #1 overall fantasy pick. But again, that isn't bold (though I've seen him drop to 4th in some mock drafts). How about two of the Vikings receiving options both finishing top 10 at their respective positions: WR Cordarelle Patterson and TE Kyle Rudolph. Love them both.
New England Patriots: I love Rob Gronkowski - he's probably the most talented all around TE in the game and if he played a full 16 game season, I don't doubt that he'd finish as the top scoring fantasy TE. The problem is, he just can't stay healthy. And you shouldn't waste a pick in the top 3 rounds on a guy who might give you 8-10 games. So pass on Gronk, because his ADP (average draft position) of 35.6 is too risky. He won't finish the 2014 season as a top 10 TE.
New Orleans Saints: Draft your Saints early and often. Drew Brees will finish as the top fantasy QB in 2014. Marques Colston will be a top 20 WR. Rookie WR Brandin Cooks will be a top 30 fantasy WR. RB Pierre Thomas will be a top 20 fantasy RB. And TE Jimmy Graham will once again be the top scoring fantasy TE. Draft him in the 1st round in 12 team leagues. He's that good.
New York Giants: Eli Manning was terrible in 2013. Really terrible. And it obviously had a negative effect on his weapons - mainly WRs Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks. Nicks is now in Indianapolis (and I like him to have a sneaky top 30 fantasy WR season - current ADP is 45th at the position), but Cruz is still around, and really, his stock can only go up from here. Cruz was an absolute stud prior to last season, and I think he returns to that level, finishing as a top 10 fantasy WR. He's currently being drafted 18th at the position.
New York Jets: Would you believe me if I told you that RB Chris Johnson finished last season tied for 8th in fantasy points at the RB position? Well, it's true. Look it up. I'll wait. He's now in New York, and while the Jets offense isn't any better than the Titans, I don't see why Johnson can't repeat his 2013 numbers. He's being drafted as the 22nd RB taken in ESPN fantasy drafts, but I'd happily take him as my RB2 this year. Because guess what? He's gonna finish as a top 10 fantasy RB again in 2014.
Oakland Raiders: Honestly, I won't draft a single Oakland Raider on my fantasy teams this year. If I have to make a prediction (and it's my post, so I say that I do have to), I'll say that RB Latavius Murray will end up leading the Raiders RBs in fantasy points. He's being drafted 61st at the position, which basically means he isn't being drafted in most leagues. I'm fine with that. But when Jones-Drew and McFadden get hurt, grab Murray because he could be fantasy relevant down the stretch. Let's say he finishes as a top 40 fantasy RB, someone you can plug into your flex spot as a bye week fill-in and be happy about it.
Philadelphia Eagles: Chip Kelly really impressed as the offensive guru everyone hoped he'd be last year. And as a result, RB Lesean McCoy and WR Desean Jackson had the best seasons of their careers. McCoy is now being drafted #1 overall in a lot of leagues, and Jackson (now with the Redskins) is a consensus top 20 fantasy WR. I want to say that WR Jeremy Maclin will step up in Jackson's place and post a top 15 fantasy WR season. But the guy just cannot stay healthy. Instead, I'll be waiting until the late rounds of my draft and snagging TE Zach Ertz, who will finish as a top 5 fantasy TE.
Pittsburgh Steelers: WR Antonio Brown proved me wrong last year in a big way, finishing the season as the 6th highest scoring fantasy WR. I won't let that happen twice. I think Brown finishes as a top 5 fantasy WR, someone who I will happily draft late in the 2nd round as my #1 WR.
San Diego Chargers: I nailed my Ryan Mathews prediction last year, as he finished with the 11th most fantasy points from the RB position. That's not happening again. He will fight with Donald Brown and Danny Woodhead for touches and struggle to be fantasy relevant. The same can't be said for the great year WR Keenan Allen had in 2013. He's due for a repeat and will finish as a top 10 fantasy WR (currently being drafted 16th at the position).
San Francisco 49ers: Colin Kaepernick finally has a bunch of healthy weapons, and I like him to finish inside the top 10 fantasy QBs. But, maybe shockingly to those of us who owned him last year, he finished top 10 in 2013 too. I think the reason he'll repeat that performance this year is the emergence of WR Michael Crabtree as a top 10 fantasy WR. When healthy, Crabtree was awesome last year. And guess what? He's healthy. Don't draft him as a top 10 WR - he's being drafted outside the top 20 - but I would happily draft him as my WR2 and watch him put up WR1 numbers.
Seattle Seahawks: There is something about WR Percy Harvin that makes him overrated every year in the draft. This year, it's his awesome Super Bowl performance last season. Unfortunately, the guy simply cannot stay healthy and thus cannot be relied on as a starting fantasy WR. He's being drafted 20th at the position, and I think that is probably where you need to draft him if you want him. But I'll be avoiding him while he finishes outside the top 30 fantasy WRs.
St. Louis Rams: Heck of a year for Zac Stacy last season. In limited duty (he only took over as the full time starting RB about halfway through the season) he posted top 20 fantasy RB numbers and is being drafted as a RB1 option this year. I'll pass. I think Stacy played a bit over his head last year and will have to fight off rookie RB Tre Mason as the season wears on. I'd be happy with him as my RB2 or flex, but that just means I won't ever have him on my team (ADP 25, I wouldn't draft in the top 40).
Tampa Bay Bucs: Doug Martin is healthy again, has a clear path to the full time RB1 gig in Tampa and should return to his 2012 ways, where he was a top 5 fantasy RB. Only I don't believe that at all. I don't think Martin is that good, and I don't think the Bucs offensive line is any good either. Martin is being drafted as a top 10 RB, but I think he'll finish outside the top 20.
Tennessee Titans: Rookie RB Bishop Sankey is the sexy name right now and is being drafted as if he'll carry the RB load for the Titans this season. His only competition, RB Shonn Greene, is anything but sexy and has never been able to keep a starting RB job. That said, I think Greene will play well enough to keep Sankey in a reserve role and to post top 25 RB numbers. Draft Greene as your 3rd RB and actually be happy about it. Yes, for real. I also really like WRs Kendall Wright and Justin Hunter. I think they post WR2 and WR3 numbers respectively.
Washington Redskins: RGIII will be the 2nd highest scoring guy in all of fantasy football for 2014. Bold enough for ya?
And that's a wrap. Good luck in your drafts and in your 2014 fantasy football leagues. Just remember, you can't win your league with your first two picks, but you can absolutely lose it.
Again, props to ESPN's Matthew Berry, as this post is basically a combination of his "Love/Hate" and "You Heard Me" columns. So, without further ado, my bold predictions for Fantasy Football 2014, team by team:
Arizona Cardinals: Last year I said that the addition of Carson Palmer would help restore Larry Fitzgerald's fantasy value and he would end up as a top 3 WR. I was wrong. However, Palmer did help the Cardinals passing game, and after a year of getting comfortable with his new weapons, I think it'll be WR Michael Floyd who benefits the most. Floyd will pass Fitz as the best Cardinal WR, and will end up top 15 in fantasy points at his position.
Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons were terrible last year, mostly due to injuries. This year the weapons are healthy again and while a trendy prediction would be for Matt Ryan to bust out and be a top 5 QB, I still think he's only a borderline starter in 10-12 team leagues. But that won't stop Julio Jones from staying healthy and finishing as the top scoring WR in the NFL. Yes, #1.
Baltimore Ravens: Should I go for 3 years in a row predicting that Torrey Smith will be a stud fantasy WR? Nah, I'm over him. Instead, I think the 2 game suspension for Ray Rice will signal the passing of the torch. Grab Bernard Pierce as your flex, because I think he will thrive as the starter and emerge as a top 20 RB at season's end.
Buffalo Bills: The Bills made a huge move on draft night, trading up to the 4th pick and grabbing stud WR Sammy Watkins. I love Watkins and think he will be a perennial top 10 fantasy WR. Just not this year. The fantasy draft price for prized rookie WRs is always high and very rarely do they pan out. So let someone else draft Watkins as a top 20-25 fantasy WR because he won't finish inside the top 30. Unless you are in a keeper league, then go nuts.
Carolina Panthers: I'm about to contradict myself in back to back predictions here, as I think the Panthers' rookie WR, Kelvin Benjamin, IS worth drafting in hopes that he is flex worthy for your fantasy team. Benjamin is being drafted 50 spots later than Watkins, so there is real value here. The best reason to draft Benjamin is that the Panthers literally have NO ONE to catch passes from Cam Newton. So why can't that person be Benjamin, who is almost as much of a beast as Watkins? I say Benjamin does end up as a top 30 fantasy WR this year, outscoring Watkins.
Chicago Bears: Last year I said that RB Matt Forte would finish as a top 7 RB, despite being drafted in the 11-15 range for RBs. I was right on that one (he finished 3rd), so I'm going to double down this year in a big way: Matt Forte will finish the season as the #1 fantasy RB. He is currently being drafted in the 4-6 range. I wouldn't necessarily take him 1-3, but man do I hope to get the 4th pick in my draft this Saturday!
Cincinnati Bengals: The Bengals overpaid for Andy Dalton's services this offseason, giving him a massive contract despite the fact that he only has average talent. The Bengals also changed up offensive systems, moving to a more run-first offense. While I think the change will benefit Gio Bernard, who I think can be a top 10 fantasy RB, I'll be even bolder and say that the change will negatively effect stud WR AJ Green, who will finish the season outside of the top 10 fantasy WRs. I will happily take Calvin Johnson, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, Brandon Marshall, Julio Jones and even Jordy Nelson ahead of Green in drafts this year.
Cleveland Browns: Can I make a prediction here without mentioning rookie QB Johnny Manziel? Oops, guess not. I like Manziel but don't see him being a relevant fantasy QB (draft him as a backup if you get a stud like Manning/Brees/Rodgers). Other than Manziel, Ben Tate is the shiny new toy in town, expected to be the workhorse #1 RB for the Browns this year. The bad news is that Tate simply can't stay healthy. And this will open the door for rookie RB Terrance West to take the job and run with it to a top 25 fantasy RB season.
Dallas Cowboys: I love the Cowboys offense this year, mostly because their defense is going to be SO bad that the offense will be playing from behind most of the year. But also because they have studs at all the key positions. I believe that the Cowboys will end up with a top 10 performer at QB (Tony Romo), RB (Demarco Murray), WR (Dez Bryant) and TE (Jason Witten) this year. Not bold enough? Ok, how about WR Terrance Williams finishing as a top 20 WR? Because that is gonna happen. Also, I like the name Terrance.
Denver Broncos: Last year I predicted that Knowshon Moreno would lead the Broncos in RB points in 2013; maybe my best prediction of the year. Moreno is gone, and so Montee Ball will be the featured RB for Peyton Manning's offense in 2014. Ball is significantly more talented than Moreno and I don't expect the Broncos' offense to miss a beat. Do the math, and it adds up to Montee Ball being a 1st round pick and top 5 fantasy RB.
Detroit Lions: I just cannot win on my Lions' predictions. Titus Young in 2012 and then Ryan Broyles in 2013. Ouch. This time, I WILL triple down and say that the Lions new offensive weapon, WR Golden Tate, will thrive next to Calvin Johnson and catch 90 balls for 1200 yards and 9 TDs, good for a top 15 fantasy WR season. Also, I think rookie TE Eric Ebron will finish as a top 10 fantasy TE.
Green Bay Packers: I had no faith in RB Eddie Lacy last year, predicting that he would finish behind Jonathan Franklin here and drafting RB David Wilson over him in my long running keeper league. Lacy is now a consensus top 5 fantasy RB in drafts this year and I agree with that. I also agree with anyone who thinks that WR Randall Cobb is an emerging star. With WR James Jones heading west to Oakland, Cobb should see his targets increase, leading to a top 10 fantasy WR season.
Houston Texans: I like Arian Foster to have a bounce back year and finish as a top 10 RB. I also like Andre Johnson to bounce back and have a top 10 WR season. But those aren't really bold. Instead, let's get a little nutty here and say that the Houston Texans D/ST will finish as the top scoring fantasy defense. I still wouldn't draft them until the second to last round, but can anyone stop JJ Watt and Jadaveon Clowney?!? Yes, picking a defense is boring, so let's also say that WR DeAndre Hopkins will break out in a big way and have a top 20 fantasy WR season.
Indianapolis Colts: Remember that Trent Richardson trade and how everyone (including me) thought he would thrive with the Colts and battle for the best fantasy RB title last year? I drove the Richardson bandwagon bus last season and let's just say that the bus is now a pile of ashes at the bottom of the cliff. Rising from those ashes, however, is a now underrated Richardson. He's being drafted as a non-starter in 10 team fantasy leagues (outside the top 20 RBs), and I think that makes him a great value pick. I would take him as a top 15 fantasy RB and will boldly say that he'll finish in the top 10.
Jacksonville Jaguars: I hyped RB Maurice Jones-Drew here last year and he made me look like an idiot. However, that won't stop me from once again hyping up the Jaguars #1 RB. It just so happens that their #1 RB is not MJD, but rather Toby Gerhart, the backup RB to Adrian Peterson for the last 3 seasons. Gerhart is now a true workhorse #1 RB and I think he will be a great RB2 for fantasy purposes. I'll say that Gerhart, being drafted 26th at the position will finish as a top 15 fantasy RB.
Kansas City Chiefs: Can I get a redo on my Dwayne Bowe prediction from last year? I drafted Bowe whenever I could get my hands on him in drafts last year and man did he disappoint. Everything else for the Chiefs went well though, as Charles finished as the top fantasy RB and Alex Smith was even a little fantasy relevant at times. I don't see that good fortune continuing. RB Jamaal Charles will be that fantasy player that ruins teams in 2014 as he will finish outside the top 15 fantasy RBs.
Miami Dolphins: Here is what I wrote last year: "I do love 2nd year RB Lamar Miller. The Dolphins keep saying that Miller and RB Daniel Thomas will split carries, but I think that is BS. Look for Miller to grab the starting gig and never look back. Lamar Miller finishes 2013 as a top 15 RB." Ditto, except replace "2nd year" with "3rd year", "Daniel Thomas" with "Knowshon Moreno" and "2013" with "2014."
Minnesota Vikings: The Vikings brought in Norv Turner to run the offense, and that has caused many of the Vikings offensive weapons to shoot up draft boards. I still love RB Adrian Peterson as the #1 overall fantasy pick. But again, that isn't bold (though I've seen him drop to 4th in some mock drafts). How about two of the Vikings receiving options both finishing top 10 at their respective positions: WR Cordarelle Patterson and TE Kyle Rudolph. Love them both.
New England Patriots: I love Rob Gronkowski - he's probably the most talented all around TE in the game and if he played a full 16 game season, I don't doubt that he'd finish as the top scoring fantasy TE. The problem is, he just can't stay healthy. And you shouldn't waste a pick in the top 3 rounds on a guy who might give you 8-10 games. So pass on Gronk, because his ADP (average draft position) of 35.6 is too risky. He won't finish the 2014 season as a top 10 TE.
New Orleans Saints: Draft your Saints early and often. Drew Brees will finish as the top fantasy QB in 2014. Marques Colston will be a top 20 WR. Rookie WR Brandin Cooks will be a top 30 fantasy WR. RB Pierre Thomas will be a top 20 fantasy RB. And TE Jimmy Graham will once again be the top scoring fantasy TE. Draft him in the 1st round in 12 team leagues. He's that good.
New York Giants: Eli Manning was terrible in 2013. Really terrible. And it obviously had a negative effect on his weapons - mainly WRs Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks. Nicks is now in Indianapolis (and I like him to have a sneaky top 30 fantasy WR season - current ADP is 45th at the position), but Cruz is still around, and really, his stock can only go up from here. Cruz was an absolute stud prior to last season, and I think he returns to that level, finishing as a top 10 fantasy WR. He's currently being drafted 18th at the position.
New York Jets: Would you believe me if I told you that RB Chris Johnson finished last season tied for 8th in fantasy points at the RB position? Well, it's true. Look it up. I'll wait. He's now in New York, and while the Jets offense isn't any better than the Titans, I don't see why Johnson can't repeat his 2013 numbers. He's being drafted as the 22nd RB taken in ESPN fantasy drafts, but I'd happily take him as my RB2 this year. Because guess what? He's gonna finish as a top 10 fantasy RB again in 2014.
Oakland Raiders: Honestly, I won't draft a single Oakland Raider on my fantasy teams this year. If I have to make a prediction (and it's my post, so I say that I do have to), I'll say that RB Latavius Murray will end up leading the Raiders RBs in fantasy points. He's being drafted 61st at the position, which basically means he isn't being drafted in most leagues. I'm fine with that. But when Jones-Drew and McFadden get hurt, grab Murray because he could be fantasy relevant down the stretch. Let's say he finishes as a top 40 fantasy RB, someone you can plug into your flex spot as a bye week fill-in and be happy about it.
Philadelphia Eagles: Chip Kelly really impressed as the offensive guru everyone hoped he'd be last year. And as a result, RB Lesean McCoy and WR Desean Jackson had the best seasons of their careers. McCoy is now being drafted #1 overall in a lot of leagues, and Jackson (now with the Redskins) is a consensus top 20 fantasy WR. I want to say that WR Jeremy Maclin will step up in Jackson's place and post a top 15 fantasy WR season. But the guy just cannot stay healthy. Instead, I'll be waiting until the late rounds of my draft and snagging TE Zach Ertz, who will finish as a top 5 fantasy TE.
Pittsburgh Steelers: WR Antonio Brown proved me wrong last year in a big way, finishing the season as the 6th highest scoring fantasy WR. I won't let that happen twice. I think Brown finishes as a top 5 fantasy WR, someone who I will happily draft late in the 2nd round as my #1 WR.
San Diego Chargers: I nailed my Ryan Mathews prediction last year, as he finished with the 11th most fantasy points from the RB position. That's not happening again. He will fight with Donald Brown and Danny Woodhead for touches and struggle to be fantasy relevant. The same can't be said for the great year WR Keenan Allen had in 2013. He's due for a repeat and will finish as a top 10 fantasy WR (currently being drafted 16th at the position).
San Francisco 49ers: Colin Kaepernick finally has a bunch of healthy weapons, and I like him to finish inside the top 10 fantasy QBs. But, maybe shockingly to those of us who owned him last year, he finished top 10 in 2013 too. I think the reason he'll repeat that performance this year is the emergence of WR Michael Crabtree as a top 10 fantasy WR. When healthy, Crabtree was awesome last year. And guess what? He's healthy. Don't draft him as a top 10 WR - he's being drafted outside the top 20 - but I would happily draft him as my WR2 and watch him put up WR1 numbers.
Seattle Seahawks: There is something about WR Percy Harvin that makes him overrated every year in the draft. This year, it's his awesome Super Bowl performance last season. Unfortunately, the guy simply cannot stay healthy and thus cannot be relied on as a starting fantasy WR. He's being drafted 20th at the position, and I think that is probably where you need to draft him if you want him. But I'll be avoiding him while he finishes outside the top 30 fantasy WRs.
St. Louis Rams: Heck of a year for Zac Stacy last season. In limited duty (he only took over as the full time starting RB about halfway through the season) he posted top 20 fantasy RB numbers and is being drafted as a RB1 option this year. I'll pass. I think Stacy played a bit over his head last year and will have to fight off rookie RB Tre Mason as the season wears on. I'd be happy with him as my RB2 or flex, but that just means I won't ever have him on my team (ADP 25, I wouldn't draft in the top 40).
Tampa Bay Bucs: Doug Martin is healthy again, has a clear path to the full time RB1 gig in Tampa and should return to his 2012 ways, where he was a top 5 fantasy RB. Only I don't believe that at all. I don't think Martin is that good, and I don't think the Bucs offensive line is any good either. Martin is being drafted as a top 10 RB, but I think he'll finish outside the top 20.
Tennessee Titans: Rookie RB Bishop Sankey is the sexy name right now and is being drafted as if he'll carry the RB load for the Titans this season. His only competition, RB Shonn Greene, is anything but sexy and has never been able to keep a starting RB job. That said, I think Greene will play well enough to keep Sankey in a reserve role and to post top 25 RB numbers. Draft Greene as your 3rd RB and actually be happy about it. Yes, for real. I also really like WRs Kendall Wright and Justin Hunter. I think they post WR2 and WR3 numbers respectively.
Washington Redskins: RGIII will be the 2nd highest scoring guy in all of fantasy football for 2014. Bold enough for ya?
And that's a wrap. Good luck in your drafts and in your 2014 fantasy football leagues. Just remember, you can't win your league with your first two picks, but you can absolutely lose it.
Tuesday, August 12, 2014
Shots of Jame-O: Back At It
Let's just jump right back in and pretend that it hasn't been over 9 months since my last blog post....
PGA Tour / Rory / Tiger:
So, this Rory McIlroy guy is pretty good, huh? In case you've been living under a rock for the past month, or just don't give a crap about golf, Rory McIlroy has now won 3 straight golf tournaments, 2 of which were majors (The British Open and the PGA Championship) and the other was a World Golf Championship, which is one of the top 5-10 tournaments of the year. That gives Rory 4 "majors" as he became the 3rd youngest golfer in the modern era to win 4 - behind only Tiger Woods and Jack Nicklaus.
If you turn on Sportscenter this week, or go to any sports website, you're likely to see an article/column titled "The Rory Era" or "Golf's New Era". This, of course, is referring to the fact that the golf torch has been passed from Tiger Woods to Rory McIlroy. While I certainly cannot argue that Rory is the most dominant golfer in the World right now, by all calculations better than Tiger Woods, I can argue against the proposition that this "Rory Era" is going to be a rehash of Tiger's 2000-2008. First of all, I just don't think Rory is as dominant or as good as an in-his-prime Tiger. Yes, I am a huge Tiger fan and would have trouble admitting ANYONE will EVER be as good as him. I can see Rory winning an average of 1 major a year for the next 3-4 years, and then basically becoming Phil, where he wins one every couple years. I'll say Rory gets to 11 majors and will be considered the 3rd best golfer of all time. However, the main reason I don't think we are in a "Rory Era" is that Rory isn't nearly as polarizing as Tiger. As good and dominant as he has been the past month, do you really think any other golfers are intimidated by Rory? You don't see Rory draining a birdie putt, getting the crowds to erupt and then playing off that crowd energy the way that Tiger used to (and hopefully will again). Rory's calm demeanor may serve him well, and may help him avoid some of the pitfalls that have plagued Tiger recently, but I just can't see Rory ruling golf the way that Tiger has since the late 90s.
Case in point: that obnoxious Omega commercial that was played somewhere between 100 and 15,000 times during TV coverage this weekend. Did anyone watch that commercial and think "wow, this guy is cool/awesome/badass?" No. You all thought he was a dork. And sorry, but dorks aren't polarizing figures in sports.
NFL / Fantasy Football:
It seems like I always come back to blogging around the NFL / fantasy football season. And then quickly disappear again once the season gets going. Well, rest assured, that is likely to happen again. That said, I plan to do my annual "Bold Predictions" post sometime in the next week or two, where I make a fantasy prediction for each of the 32 NFL teams.
I made my first fantasy football trade this weekend in a league where we keep 5 players every year with no restrictions on the keepers. I gave up a lot - Andre Ellington, Keenan Allen and Victor Cruz and only got back Julio Jones and a 2nd round pick. But the reason I made the trade was that without it, I would have had to drop Cruz and Allen (or Andre Johnson), so for me, this trade was basically Andre Ellington and Keenan Allen for Julio Jones, Andre Johnson and a 2nd round pick. Sort of a no brainer for me. I'll now be keeping Matt Stafford (we get 6pts for passing TDs so QBs are important), DeMarco Murray, Le'Veon Bell, Julio Jones and Andre Johnson. Lots of upside. I'm really high on Julio Jones this year, as you'll see in my Bold Predictions post.
As for the NFL in general, I think this is a make or break year for the Detroit Lions. I'm not saying they have to win the Super Bowl, or even make the playoffs. But they do have to win 9+ games and in the half dozen or so games that they lose, they need to be outplayed instead of making mistakes that cost them games. It's also put up or shut up time for Matt Stafford. He now has even more offensive weapons to utilize, and the Lions brought in as many QB friendly coaches as they could find. I'm hoping for a surprise NFC North title, but I'll settle for a wildcard.
Other Notes:
I got married this summer - as anyone who actually reads this probably already knows. My wife, Kait and I have been watching (or rewatching for me) The Sopranos from the start. Man, I forgot how awesome that show is in the early seasons! One of my favorite things is watching a great show with someone who has never seen it.
I also have a new job, or jobs, working for a law firm and a property management company. So if you need legal services, or live in a community that is part of a homeowners association or condo association and are unhappy with the management of that association, hit me up!
The plan, as always, is to keep up with the blog. That said, see you in 2015!
PGA Tour / Rory / Tiger:
So, this Rory McIlroy guy is pretty good, huh? In case you've been living under a rock for the past month, or just don't give a crap about golf, Rory McIlroy has now won 3 straight golf tournaments, 2 of which were majors (The British Open and the PGA Championship) and the other was a World Golf Championship, which is one of the top 5-10 tournaments of the year. That gives Rory 4 "majors" as he became the 3rd youngest golfer in the modern era to win 4 - behind only Tiger Woods and Jack Nicklaus.
If you turn on Sportscenter this week, or go to any sports website, you're likely to see an article/column titled "The Rory Era" or "Golf's New Era". This, of course, is referring to the fact that the golf torch has been passed from Tiger Woods to Rory McIlroy. While I certainly cannot argue that Rory is the most dominant golfer in the World right now, by all calculations better than Tiger Woods, I can argue against the proposition that this "Rory Era" is going to be a rehash of Tiger's 2000-2008. First of all, I just don't think Rory is as dominant or as good as an in-his-prime Tiger. Yes, I am a huge Tiger fan and would have trouble admitting ANYONE will EVER be as good as him. I can see Rory winning an average of 1 major a year for the next 3-4 years, and then basically becoming Phil, where he wins one every couple years. I'll say Rory gets to 11 majors and will be considered the 3rd best golfer of all time. However, the main reason I don't think we are in a "Rory Era" is that Rory isn't nearly as polarizing as Tiger. As good and dominant as he has been the past month, do you really think any other golfers are intimidated by Rory? You don't see Rory draining a birdie putt, getting the crowds to erupt and then playing off that crowd energy the way that Tiger used to (and hopefully will again). Rory's calm demeanor may serve him well, and may help him avoid some of the pitfalls that have plagued Tiger recently, but I just can't see Rory ruling golf the way that Tiger has since the late 90s.
Case in point: that obnoxious Omega commercial that was played somewhere between 100 and 15,000 times during TV coverage this weekend. Did anyone watch that commercial and think "wow, this guy is cool/awesome/badass?" No. You all thought he was a dork. And sorry, but dorks aren't polarizing figures in sports.
NFL / Fantasy Football:
It seems like I always come back to blogging around the NFL / fantasy football season. And then quickly disappear again once the season gets going. Well, rest assured, that is likely to happen again. That said, I plan to do my annual "Bold Predictions" post sometime in the next week or two, where I make a fantasy prediction for each of the 32 NFL teams.
I made my first fantasy football trade this weekend in a league where we keep 5 players every year with no restrictions on the keepers. I gave up a lot - Andre Ellington, Keenan Allen and Victor Cruz and only got back Julio Jones and a 2nd round pick. But the reason I made the trade was that without it, I would have had to drop Cruz and Allen (or Andre Johnson), so for me, this trade was basically Andre Ellington and Keenan Allen for Julio Jones, Andre Johnson and a 2nd round pick. Sort of a no brainer for me. I'll now be keeping Matt Stafford (we get 6pts for passing TDs so QBs are important), DeMarco Murray, Le'Veon Bell, Julio Jones and Andre Johnson. Lots of upside. I'm really high on Julio Jones this year, as you'll see in my Bold Predictions post.
As for the NFL in general, I think this is a make or break year for the Detroit Lions. I'm not saying they have to win the Super Bowl, or even make the playoffs. But they do have to win 9+ games and in the half dozen or so games that they lose, they need to be outplayed instead of making mistakes that cost them games. It's also put up or shut up time for Matt Stafford. He now has even more offensive weapons to utilize, and the Lions brought in as many QB friendly coaches as they could find. I'm hoping for a surprise NFC North title, but I'll settle for a wildcard.
Other Notes:
I got married this summer - as anyone who actually reads this probably already knows. My wife, Kait and I have been watching (or rewatching for me) The Sopranos from the start. Man, I forgot how awesome that show is in the early seasons! One of my favorite things is watching a great show with someone who has never seen it.
I also have a new job, or jobs, working for a law firm and a property management company. So if you need legal services, or live in a community that is part of a homeowners association or condo association and are unhappy with the management of that association, hit me up!
The plan, as always, is to keep up with the blog. That said, see you in 2015!
Tuesday, October 8, 2013
Checking in on my Fantasy Football Bold Predictions
The 2013 NFL and Fantasy Football seasons are in full swing. Hard to believe we are almost 1/3rd of the way through the NFL season already - and more than 1/3rd of the way through most fantasy regular seasons that run 13 or 14 weeks. I figured now was a good time to check back in on my pre-season "Bold Predictions" column and see how I'm doing.
I forgot to mention in that Bold Predictions column that the scoring system I was basing the predictions on is standard, non-PPR scoring. This is the most common scoring system for fantasy leagues and also the scoring system that my longest running league uses. 20 yards per point for QBs, 4pts per QB passing TD. 10 yards per point for rushing and receiving. 6pts for all rushing/receiving TDs.
Now, let's see how good or bad my predictions are looking on a PASS/FAIL basis:
Arizona Cardinals: I said that Larry Fitzgerald would end up as a top-3 fantasy WR this year now that the Cardinals had a semi-legit QB in Carson Palmer. It's early, but this is looking like a poor prediction. Fitz's numbers are about the same as they have been the last couple seasons - as he currently ranks as the 25th highest scoring fantasy WR. Unless something major changes, I don't see him cracking the top 10. FAIL
Atlanta Falcons: I predicted that Steven Jackson would get hurt and finish outside the top 20 RBs. Welp, the sun came up and Steven Jackson got hurt. In the first quarter of week 2. And hasn't played since. Baring a crazy fantasy explosion in the 2nd half, I think I'll chalk this one up as a PASS.
Baltimore Ravens: I predicted that Torrey Smith would end up as a top 15 WR. Right now he is ranked 8th in WR fantasy points with 556 yards and 1TD through 5 games. That yardage total ranks him 2nd at the WR position. This prediction is looking very strong, as Smith no longer is super boom or bust, but has been surprisingly consistent. Again, it's early, but we are going with a PASS.
Buffalo Bills: The Bills offensive production has not gone as expected. RB CJ Spiller has been mostly a disappointment and WR Stevie Johnson is barely rosterable. Instead, it is the rookies who have impressed. WR Robert Woods is off to a strong start with 265 yards, 2TDs and a 2pt conversion. And rookie QB EJ Manuel was well on his way to making my prediction come true - that he would finish as a top 20 QB. Unfortunately, Manuel suffered a sprained knee this past weekend and is expected to be out 6-8 weeks. Thus, FAIL. What a shame, what a shame.
Carolina Panthers: I said that rookie RB Kenjon Barner would eventually take over as the starting RB and emerge as a flex-worthy fantasy player. DeAngelo Williams has been fine, so unless he gets hurt or really starts to struggle, I don't see this prediction coming true. However, I can't give myself a fail after only 4 games, and truth be told, Barner was hurt until last week. So this one is a WAIT and SEE.
Chicago Bears: I predicted that Matt Forte, who was being drafted in the 11-15 range, would finish as a top 7 fantasy RB and should be drafted at the end of the 1st round. Right now, Forte is 4th in fantasy points at the RB position. So that would be a PASS. As a side note, how about Alshon Jeffrey emerging? We had a good laugh at our draft when someone kept Jeffrey as their only keeper in the 8th round. Jeffrey is ranked 7th, yes 7th, in WR fantasy points thus far. Wow.
Cincinnati Bengals: I said to draft Giovanni Bernard early as he would eventually emerge as the go-to RB in Cincy. Well, that pretty much has already happened. While Green-Ellis leads Bernard in carries, they are actually tied in rushing yards (209), Bernard has over 100 more receiving yards and they both have 3 total TDs. Trade FOR Bernard now, as his value will only increase, especially in keeper leagues. PASS.
Cleveland Browns: This is a hard one to grade. I did hype up Josh Gordon, who since his suspension ended has performed like a top 10 WR. But I also said that RB Trent Richardson would finish as a top 3 RB. Now, Richardson has been fine, but he was also traded to the Colts after week 2. And since the trade, he has been very average. Because it has only been 5 games, I will go with a WAIT and SEE, but I'm guessing this will be a fail by the end of the season.
Dallas Cowboys: FAIL. Get that out of the way early. I said Dez Bryant would not live up to the hype, and he has returned the favor by performing as the TOP fantasy WR to date. The only good thing is that I drafted him in a couple leagues, figuring he'd prove me wrong.
Denver Broncos: Let's start by saying WOW to Peyton Manning's performance. 20 TD passes, 1 INT and 1900 yards in 5 games?!? He is crazy good. I also think my prediction here should get a WOW as well. I said that Knowshon Moreno would be the highest scoring Broncos RB. At the time, Montee Ball was hyped as the next great rookie RB and Ronnie Hillman was labeled the "starter." Well, Moreno is the 7th highest scoring fantasy RB right now with 69.8 points. Ball and Hillman have combined for 40. PASS.
Detroit Lions: Nothing to see here, folks. Other than maybe my worst prediction thus far. I said Broyles would break out, to the tune of 80-1000-8 and finish as a top 20 WR. Well, after starting the season hurt, he is finally healthy and NOT taking advantage of opportunities. With Calvin Johnson sidelined last week, Broyles caught 2 passes for 27 yards. He has 6 fantasy points this YEAR. FAIL.
Green Bay Packers: I went out on a limb here and said that Jonathan Franklin, not Eddie Lacy, would lead the team in RB fantasy points. Now, this seems like an easy fail. However, Lacy got banged up a few weeks back and when he did, Franklin stepped up with a big fantasy day. Lacy has 21.9 fantasy points to Franklin's 16.7. I'm gonna go with a WAIT and SEE here, thinking that if Lacy gets hurt again, Franklin could run with it. Wishful thinking.
Houston Texans: I predicted that Andre Johnson would have another healthy, studly season in 2013 and finish as a top 5 fantasy WR. Currently, he has scored the 32nd most fantasy points at the WR position. Not good. However, he is 7th in receiving yards at the WR position. He just hasn't scored a TD. Unfortunately, I don't see this improving much, as Matt Schaub has seemingly turned into Mark Sanchez. I'm going with a FAIL - but not giving up entirely.
Indianapolis Colts: Another tough one to grade here, as Trent Richardson has screwed up my prediction that Ahmad Bradshaw would finish as an underrated top 20-25 fantasy RB. I am going to give myself a FAIL, mostly because Bradshaw is hurt and the injury has nothing to do with Richardson. But as a side note, I did say that Andrew Luck would repeat his good rookie season and finish as a top 10 fantasy QB and Reggie Wayne would finish as a top 15 WR. After 5 weeks, Luck is 7th and Wayne is 17th. Not bad.
Jacksonville Jaguars: YUCK. FAIL. Maybe the worst team in the history of the NFL here. I did say I liked Blackmon after he returns from suspension (he returned last week and caught 5 balls for 136 yards and a TD). But I also predicted RB Maurice Jones-Drew to have a top 10 fantasy season. Let's just say he's not exactly on his way.
Kansas City Chiefs: Maybe my worst 2 predictions in a row here. I was right about liking the new Chiefs offense with Andy Reid as HC and Alex Smith at QB. The Chiefs are 5-0 (a year after finishing 2-14) and Jamaal Charles may be the NPM (non-Peyton Manning) fantasy MVP thus far. Unfortunately I also said that Dwayne Bowe was the Chiefs player I was most excited about and that he would finish as a top 10 WR. FAIL. He is barely startable in fantasy right now.
Miami Dolphins: Yikes, not picking up anytime soon here. I said RB Lamar Miller would finish as a top 15 RB. I thought the "splitting carries" talk with RB Daniel Thomas was a smoke screen. After 5 games, the Dolphins continue to give Thomas carries despite his 2.6 yards per carry average. This has limited Miller, who has looked like the MUCH better RB thus far. I still have faith here, but I'm forced to give myself a FAIL, since Miller has only scored the 29th most points at the RB position. Buy low.
Minnesota Vikings: I had no faith in any Vikings fantasy players other than RB Adrian Peterson, so I "boldly" predicted that Peterson would be the top fantasy RB and also break the NFL rushing record. Well, he's only played 4 games (Vikings had a BYE last week), but Peterson ranks 3rd in fantasy RB points. So that #1 prediction is looking good. However, he "only" has 421 rushing yards, an average of 105 per game. Thus, he's not really on pace to break the rushing record and I have to give myself a FAIL here.
New England Patriots: FAIL. I said Tom Brady would still finish as a top 3 fantasy QB despite his lack of weapons. After 5 games, he's 19th in QB fantasy points and the lack of weapons is clearly the reason. In the first couple games, Patriots WRs were dropping passes at an alarming rate. They have recovered, slightly, but it hasn't been enough. It would take a Peyton Manning-like run for Brady to prove me right. Hey, if anyone can do it....
New Orleans Saints: If you are keeping track at home, that is 7 straight fails for me! Well, it won't be 8, and that is thanks to superhuman TE Jimmy Graham. I said Graham should be drafted in the 2nd round and would produce like a top WR. Well, through 5 games, the highest scoring WR (Dez Bryant) has scored 76.3 fantasy points. Jimmy Graham? 95.3! That would be a PASS.
New York Giants: I predicted that WR Rueben Randle would step up and finish as a top 30 WR despite being the 3rd WR on his own team. The prediction wasn't looking great until last week when Randle caught 2 TD passes. But points are points, and right now, Randle has the 34th most WR fantasy points. I see the trend continuing and that would be a PASS.
New York Jets: What a win last night! Maybe I underestimated the Jets when I said they wouldn't have a single player finish as a "starter" in a standard fantasy league - meaning no top 10 QB, top 25 RB or top 30 WR. Right now, QB Geno Smith ranks 14th in QB scoring, RB Bilal Powell ranks 14th in RB scoring and WR Santonio Holmes ranks 50th in WR scoring. I guess that is a FAIL for me right now. However, I'll double down on this bet. No way Geno climbs into the top 10 or that a guy named BILAL stays in the top 25. Book it.
Oakland Raiders: This is a nice win here. I said that QB Terrelle Pryor would win the starting QB job by week 6 (he won it in the preseason) and that he would put up Cam Newton-like numbers, be a regular bye-week fill-in QB the 2nd half of the season, and drafted as a top 15 guy next year. Pryor currently has the 20th most QB fantasy points and I can only see that improving. Pass.
Philadelphia Eagles: Another nice win, as I said RB Lesean McCoy would thrive under Chip Kelly and finish as a top-3 fantasy RB. McCoy is currently the 2nd highest scoring RB, just behind Jamaal Charles. I don't see that changing much, if at all. PASS.
Pittsburgh Steelers: 0-4. That's a win in my book any day of the week! Oh, yeah, we are talking about the predictions. I said Emmanuel Sanders would finish as the Steelers top WR over Antonio Brown. Wrong now, and likely wrong by the end of the year too. FAIL.
San Diego Chargers: He got me again! Damn you, Ryan Mathews! I said he'd finally stay healthy and make me look dumb for dropping him in a keeper league. Well, he was just dropped again in that keeper league, this time in mid-season! You know that cannot be good. FAIL.
San Francisco 49ers: I have never been more angry about being right in my life! I said QB Colin Kaepernick would be drafted as a top 8 QB but finish outside the top 15. Unfortunately, I decided to hedge my bet here and draft him in my longest running fantasy league as my starter. Predictably, he ranks outside the top 20 right now and looks every bit the game manager that Alex Smith was in San Fran. PASS (but I'm not happy about it).
Seattle Seahawks: I predicated that Golden Tate would step up for the injured Percy Harvin and put up top 20 fantasy numbers for the 1st half of the season. Tate currently is the 38th highest scoring fantasy WR. So this is a FAIL...but not necessarily by much. A couple good weeks in a row for Tate (who looked great last week), and he becomes a fantasy starter.
St. Louis Rams: FAIL. I really, really liked RB Daryl Richardson to emerge as a fantasy star, predicting that he'd hang onto the starting RB gig and finish as a top 20 option. However, he seems to have lost that gig, and the Rams backfield is a complete mess. They are now starting Zach Stacy at RB, and Richardson will only continue to lose carries.
Tampa Bay Bucs: I predicted that Vincent Jackson would continue to fly under the radar as a top 5 fantasy WR. That hasn't happened. He has been extremely average so far and now has an unproven rookie QB at the helm. I'm hoping he ends up proving me right, since I drafted him in a few leagues, but right now this is a FAIL.
Tennessee Titans: Chris Johnson, I just cannot quit you! I said he's finally underrated and would finish as a top 10 fantasy RB. Johnson still ranks 18th in fantasy points at the RB position, but he looks really awful running the ball. He would rank much worse, but he caught a shuffle pass from QB Ryan Fitzpatrick Sunday and took it 49 yards to the house. If he can't run the ball, he can't finish top 10. FAIL.
Washington Redskins: I predicted that QB Robert Griffin III would have an Adrian Peterson-like bounce back from ACL surgery and finish as a top 5 fantasy QB. As of now, I have to give this a FAIL. RGIII looked timid and average the first 2 games of the season, and with a BYE last week, he ranks nowhere near the top 5. I did draft him in a bunch of leagues though, so here's to hoping he breaks out!
Lots of FAILS, some PASSES and a few WAIT and SEES. I'll check back most likely at the end of the season to give myself a final grade.
P.S. Mike McCarthy is 0-1 on his predictions.
I forgot to mention in that Bold Predictions column that the scoring system I was basing the predictions on is standard, non-PPR scoring. This is the most common scoring system for fantasy leagues and also the scoring system that my longest running league uses. 20 yards per point for QBs, 4pts per QB passing TD. 10 yards per point for rushing and receiving. 6pts for all rushing/receiving TDs.
Now, let's see how good or bad my predictions are looking on a PASS/FAIL basis:
Arizona Cardinals: I said that Larry Fitzgerald would end up as a top-3 fantasy WR this year now that the Cardinals had a semi-legit QB in Carson Palmer. It's early, but this is looking like a poor prediction. Fitz's numbers are about the same as they have been the last couple seasons - as he currently ranks as the 25th highest scoring fantasy WR. Unless something major changes, I don't see him cracking the top 10. FAIL
Atlanta Falcons: I predicted that Steven Jackson would get hurt and finish outside the top 20 RBs. Welp, the sun came up and Steven Jackson got hurt. In the first quarter of week 2. And hasn't played since. Baring a crazy fantasy explosion in the 2nd half, I think I'll chalk this one up as a PASS.
Baltimore Ravens: I predicted that Torrey Smith would end up as a top 15 WR. Right now he is ranked 8th in WR fantasy points with 556 yards and 1TD through 5 games. That yardage total ranks him 2nd at the WR position. This prediction is looking very strong, as Smith no longer is super boom or bust, but has been surprisingly consistent. Again, it's early, but we are going with a PASS.
Buffalo Bills: The Bills offensive production has not gone as expected. RB CJ Spiller has been mostly a disappointment and WR Stevie Johnson is barely rosterable. Instead, it is the rookies who have impressed. WR Robert Woods is off to a strong start with 265 yards, 2TDs and a 2pt conversion. And rookie QB EJ Manuel was well on his way to making my prediction come true - that he would finish as a top 20 QB. Unfortunately, Manuel suffered a sprained knee this past weekend and is expected to be out 6-8 weeks. Thus, FAIL. What a shame, what a shame.
Carolina Panthers: I said that rookie RB Kenjon Barner would eventually take over as the starting RB and emerge as a flex-worthy fantasy player. DeAngelo Williams has been fine, so unless he gets hurt or really starts to struggle, I don't see this prediction coming true. However, I can't give myself a fail after only 4 games, and truth be told, Barner was hurt until last week. So this one is a WAIT and SEE.
Chicago Bears: I predicted that Matt Forte, who was being drafted in the 11-15 range, would finish as a top 7 fantasy RB and should be drafted at the end of the 1st round. Right now, Forte is 4th in fantasy points at the RB position. So that would be a PASS. As a side note, how about Alshon Jeffrey emerging? We had a good laugh at our draft when someone kept Jeffrey as their only keeper in the 8th round. Jeffrey is ranked 7th, yes 7th, in WR fantasy points thus far. Wow.
Cincinnati Bengals: I said to draft Giovanni Bernard early as he would eventually emerge as the go-to RB in Cincy. Well, that pretty much has already happened. While Green-Ellis leads Bernard in carries, they are actually tied in rushing yards (209), Bernard has over 100 more receiving yards and they both have 3 total TDs. Trade FOR Bernard now, as his value will only increase, especially in keeper leagues. PASS.
Cleveland Browns: This is a hard one to grade. I did hype up Josh Gordon, who since his suspension ended has performed like a top 10 WR. But I also said that RB Trent Richardson would finish as a top 3 RB. Now, Richardson has been fine, but he was also traded to the Colts after week 2. And since the trade, he has been very average. Because it has only been 5 games, I will go with a WAIT and SEE, but I'm guessing this will be a fail by the end of the season.
Dallas Cowboys: FAIL. Get that out of the way early. I said Dez Bryant would not live up to the hype, and he has returned the favor by performing as the TOP fantasy WR to date. The only good thing is that I drafted him in a couple leagues, figuring he'd prove me wrong.
Denver Broncos: Let's start by saying WOW to Peyton Manning's performance. 20 TD passes, 1 INT and 1900 yards in 5 games?!? He is crazy good. I also think my prediction here should get a WOW as well. I said that Knowshon Moreno would be the highest scoring Broncos RB. At the time, Montee Ball was hyped as the next great rookie RB and Ronnie Hillman was labeled the "starter." Well, Moreno is the 7th highest scoring fantasy RB right now with 69.8 points. Ball and Hillman have combined for 40. PASS.
Detroit Lions: Nothing to see here, folks. Other than maybe my worst prediction thus far. I said Broyles would break out, to the tune of 80-1000-8 and finish as a top 20 WR. Well, after starting the season hurt, he is finally healthy and NOT taking advantage of opportunities. With Calvin Johnson sidelined last week, Broyles caught 2 passes for 27 yards. He has 6 fantasy points this YEAR. FAIL.
Green Bay Packers: I went out on a limb here and said that Jonathan Franklin, not Eddie Lacy, would lead the team in RB fantasy points. Now, this seems like an easy fail. However, Lacy got banged up a few weeks back and when he did, Franklin stepped up with a big fantasy day. Lacy has 21.9 fantasy points to Franklin's 16.7. I'm gonna go with a WAIT and SEE here, thinking that if Lacy gets hurt again, Franklin could run with it. Wishful thinking.
Houston Texans: I predicted that Andre Johnson would have another healthy, studly season in 2013 and finish as a top 5 fantasy WR. Currently, he has scored the 32nd most fantasy points at the WR position. Not good. However, he is 7th in receiving yards at the WR position. He just hasn't scored a TD. Unfortunately, I don't see this improving much, as Matt Schaub has seemingly turned into Mark Sanchez. I'm going with a FAIL - but not giving up entirely.
Indianapolis Colts: Another tough one to grade here, as Trent Richardson has screwed up my prediction that Ahmad Bradshaw would finish as an underrated top 20-25 fantasy RB. I am going to give myself a FAIL, mostly because Bradshaw is hurt and the injury has nothing to do with Richardson. But as a side note, I did say that Andrew Luck would repeat his good rookie season and finish as a top 10 fantasy QB and Reggie Wayne would finish as a top 15 WR. After 5 weeks, Luck is 7th and Wayne is 17th. Not bad.
Jacksonville Jaguars: YUCK. FAIL. Maybe the worst team in the history of the NFL here. I did say I liked Blackmon after he returns from suspension (he returned last week and caught 5 balls for 136 yards and a TD). But I also predicted RB Maurice Jones-Drew to have a top 10 fantasy season. Let's just say he's not exactly on his way.
Kansas City Chiefs: Maybe my worst 2 predictions in a row here. I was right about liking the new Chiefs offense with Andy Reid as HC and Alex Smith at QB. The Chiefs are 5-0 (a year after finishing 2-14) and Jamaal Charles may be the NPM (non-Peyton Manning) fantasy MVP thus far. Unfortunately I also said that Dwayne Bowe was the Chiefs player I was most excited about and that he would finish as a top 10 WR. FAIL. He is barely startable in fantasy right now.
Miami Dolphins: Yikes, not picking up anytime soon here. I said RB Lamar Miller would finish as a top 15 RB. I thought the "splitting carries" talk with RB Daniel Thomas was a smoke screen. After 5 games, the Dolphins continue to give Thomas carries despite his 2.6 yards per carry average. This has limited Miller, who has looked like the MUCH better RB thus far. I still have faith here, but I'm forced to give myself a FAIL, since Miller has only scored the 29th most points at the RB position. Buy low.
Minnesota Vikings: I had no faith in any Vikings fantasy players other than RB Adrian Peterson, so I "boldly" predicted that Peterson would be the top fantasy RB and also break the NFL rushing record. Well, he's only played 4 games (Vikings had a BYE last week), but Peterson ranks 3rd in fantasy RB points. So that #1 prediction is looking good. However, he "only" has 421 rushing yards, an average of 105 per game. Thus, he's not really on pace to break the rushing record and I have to give myself a FAIL here.
New England Patriots: FAIL. I said Tom Brady would still finish as a top 3 fantasy QB despite his lack of weapons. After 5 games, he's 19th in QB fantasy points and the lack of weapons is clearly the reason. In the first couple games, Patriots WRs were dropping passes at an alarming rate. They have recovered, slightly, but it hasn't been enough. It would take a Peyton Manning-like run for Brady to prove me right. Hey, if anyone can do it....
New Orleans Saints: If you are keeping track at home, that is 7 straight fails for me! Well, it won't be 8, and that is thanks to superhuman TE Jimmy Graham. I said Graham should be drafted in the 2nd round and would produce like a top WR. Well, through 5 games, the highest scoring WR (Dez Bryant) has scored 76.3 fantasy points. Jimmy Graham? 95.3! That would be a PASS.
New York Giants: I predicted that WR Rueben Randle would step up and finish as a top 30 WR despite being the 3rd WR on his own team. The prediction wasn't looking great until last week when Randle caught 2 TD passes. But points are points, and right now, Randle has the 34th most WR fantasy points. I see the trend continuing and that would be a PASS.
New York Jets: What a win last night! Maybe I underestimated the Jets when I said they wouldn't have a single player finish as a "starter" in a standard fantasy league - meaning no top 10 QB, top 25 RB or top 30 WR. Right now, QB Geno Smith ranks 14th in QB scoring, RB Bilal Powell ranks 14th in RB scoring and WR Santonio Holmes ranks 50th in WR scoring. I guess that is a FAIL for me right now. However, I'll double down on this bet. No way Geno climbs into the top 10 or that a guy named BILAL stays in the top 25. Book it.
Oakland Raiders: This is a nice win here. I said that QB Terrelle Pryor would win the starting QB job by week 6 (he won it in the preseason) and that he would put up Cam Newton-like numbers, be a regular bye-week fill-in QB the 2nd half of the season, and drafted as a top 15 guy next year. Pryor currently has the 20th most QB fantasy points and I can only see that improving. Pass.
Philadelphia Eagles: Another nice win, as I said RB Lesean McCoy would thrive under Chip Kelly and finish as a top-3 fantasy RB. McCoy is currently the 2nd highest scoring RB, just behind Jamaal Charles. I don't see that changing much, if at all. PASS.
Pittsburgh Steelers: 0-4. That's a win in my book any day of the week! Oh, yeah, we are talking about the predictions. I said Emmanuel Sanders would finish as the Steelers top WR over Antonio Brown. Wrong now, and likely wrong by the end of the year too. FAIL.
San Diego Chargers: He got me again! Damn you, Ryan Mathews! I said he'd finally stay healthy and make me look dumb for dropping him in a keeper league. Well, he was just dropped again in that keeper league, this time in mid-season! You know that cannot be good. FAIL.
San Francisco 49ers: I have never been more angry about being right in my life! I said QB Colin Kaepernick would be drafted as a top 8 QB but finish outside the top 15. Unfortunately, I decided to hedge my bet here and draft him in my longest running fantasy league as my starter. Predictably, he ranks outside the top 20 right now and looks every bit the game manager that Alex Smith was in San Fran. PASS (but I'm not happy about it).
Seattle Seahawks: I predicated that Golden Tate would step up for the injured Percy Harvin and put up top 20 fantasy numbers for the 1st half of the season. Tate currently is the 38th highest scoring fantasy WR. So this is a FAIL...but not necessarily by much. A couple good weeks in a row for Tate (who looked great last week), and he becomes a fantasy starter.
St. Louis Rams: FAIL. I really, really liked RB Daryl Richardson to emerge as a fantasy star, predicting that he'd hang onto the starting RB gig and finish as a top 20 option. However, he seems to have lost that gig, and the Rams backfield is a complete mess. They are now starting Zach Stacy at RB, and Richardson will only continue to lose carries.
Tampa Bay Bucs: I predicted that Vincent Jackson would continue to fly under the radar as a top 5 fantasy WR. That hasn't happened. He has been extremely average so far and now has an unproven rookie QB at the helm. I'm hoping he ends up proving me right, since I drafted him in a few leagues, but right now this is a FAIL.
Tennessee Titans: Chris Johnson, I just cannot quit you! I said he's finally underrated and would finish as a top 10 fantasy RB. Johnson still ranks 18th in fantasy points at the RB position, but he looks really awful running the ball. He would rank much worse, but he caught a shuffle pass from QB Ryan Fitzpatrick Sunday and took it 49 yards to the house. If he can't run the ball, he can't finish top 10. FAIL.
Washington Redskins: I predicted that QB Robert Griffin III would have an Adrian Peterson-like bounce back from ACL surgery and finish as a top 5 fantasy QB. As of now, I have to give this a FAIL. RGIII looked timid and average the first 2 games of the season, and with a BYE last week, he ranks nowhere near the top 5. I did draft him in a bunch of leagues though, so here's to hoping he breaks out!
Lots of FAILS, some PASSES and a few WAIT and SEES. I'll check back most likely at the end of the season to give myself a final grade.
P.S. Mike McCarthy is 0-1 on his predictions.
Thursday, August 22, 2013
Bold Predictions: Fantasy Football 2013
The 2013 NFL season is about to begin in a couple weeks and that means fantasy football drafts are in full swing. I start my drafting this Saturday and figured what better way to sabotage all my picks than to post a blog about fantasy football. I did this same thing last year, and it was BY FAR the most popular blog post I've done. Thankfully, my friends STILL do not read my blog, so I do not have to worry about giving away my draft secrets!
Again, props to ESPN's Matthew Berry, as this post is basically a combination of his "Love/Hate" and "You Heard Me" columns. So, without further ado, my bold predictions for Fantasy Football 2013, team by team:
Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals made some major off season changes, including bringing in a QB who should finally be able to get the ball to Larry Fitzgerald. With Fitzgerald, no one ever questioned his skills, just the skills of his QBs. Now with Carson Palmer at the helm, I think Fitz is ready to return to top tier status. Larry Fitzgerald will end the season as a top 3 fantasy WR.
Atlanta Falcons: Once again, the Falcons are loaded on offense with fantasy weapons. Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez make up one of the most prolific passing attacks in the NFL. This year, however, they added Steven Jackson to take the offense to the next level. Everyone is on the "SJax" hype train....but me. Steven Jackson, most likely due to injuries, will finish outside the top 20 fantasy RBs.
Baltimore Ravens: After winning the Super Bowl last year, you would think the Ravens would be full of fantasy stars. However, only one member of the Ravens is regularly drafted in the first 5 rounds this year - Ray Rice. I made the prediction that Torrey Smith would be a top 20 fantasy WR last year, and I was wrong. So let's double down - Torrey Smith will finish as a top 15 fantasy WR in 2013.
Buffalo Bills: CJ Spiller is the big fantasy name on the Bills this year. In mostly a split role last season, Spiller broke out and is now being drafted as a consensus top 10 fantasy pick. I agree with the consensus and think he will finish as a top 6-8 fantasy RB. However, that isn't bold. Instead, I'll say that rookie QB EJ Manuel will win the starting job and finish as a top 20 fantasy QB; meaning he should be drafted in fantasy leagues and used as a backup/bye week replacement. Big potential.
Carolina Panthers: Not much to love about the Panthers in fantasy outside of Cam Newton, who remains a solid option at QB. Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams have been teasing us with fantasy potential for years, but neither has proved to be a reliable fantasy starter. Therefore, I will say that rookie RB Kenjon Barner from Oregon will eventually take over as the starter and will be flex worthy the last 1/3rd of the season. Don't draft him, but keep an eye on his carries week to week.
Chicago Bears: With new head coach Marc Trestman at the helm, I think the Bears will focus a bit more on a balanced offensive attack; meaning that Matt Forte should get more work than he has in the past. As a result, I see Forte finishing as a top 7 fantasy RB. Right now, he is being drafted in the 11-15 range among RBs. Take him at the end of the 1st round.
Cincinnati Bengals: Love the potential of shifty speedster rookie Giovanni Bernard. Unfortunately, I fear the Bengals are going to stick with BenJarvus Green-Ellis as their starter for far too long, making Bernard only an RB4 type of back. That said, grab him earlier in drafts, as I can see a big second half leading to Bernard being a fantastic option for keeper leagues going into next year.
Cleveland Browns: I think the Browns could be a good source of fantasy points this year. I wouldn't go near QB Brandon Weeden in fantasy, but I do like WR Josh Gordon later in drafts (once his suspension ends) and I LOVE RB Trent Richardson in his 2nd full NFL season. Last year, he dealt with some early injuries, and again he has some of those concerns this season. However, that isn't going to stop me from saying that Richardson will finish as a top 3 fantasy RB.
Dallas Cowboys: Everyone LOVES Dez Bryant this year. In the 2nd half of last season, he was the top fantasy WR. It would seem that he has put any issues behind him and finally is ready to take his place at the top of the WR charts. I disagree. I think Bryant will go back to his injury-riddled, immature ways and finish outside the top 10 WRs. Doesn't seem bold? Right now, he's being drafted as the #2 WR in drafts!
Denver Broncos: Lots to like here as well. Manning and his WRs should all have big seasons. But it's the RBs that are questionable. Will Montee Ball take the bull by the horns and run away with the starting gig? I don't think so. There is enough uncertainty right now in the Broncos backfield for me to make this prediction: RB Knowshon Moreno, yes, him, will lead the Broncos RBs in fantasy points in 2013.
Detroit Lions: Man, that Titus Young prediction worked out well for me last year, huh? Instead of cutting my losses, I'm going to double down again. Only this time on WR Ryan Broyles. With Stafford throwing the ball 700+ times a season, someone other than Calvin Johnson has to catch passes. This year it'll be Broyles, to the tune of 80-1000-8 and a finish among the top 20 fantasy WRs.
Green Bay Packers: The Packers have a ton of weapons, I'm just not sure that equates to big fantasy seasons for any one player (other than QB Aaron Rodgers, of course). That said, I'll go out on a limb and say that rookie RB Jonathan Franklin, not Eddie Lacy, will lead the Packers in fantasy points from the RB position and will be a flex worthy player the 2nd half of the season.
Houston Texans: WR Andre Johnson had a nice bounce back season last year, and I do not think it was a fluke. I see the trend continuing, and AJ finishing as a top 5 fantasy WR. He is being drafted around 10th at the position. So jump him early and thank me later.
Indianapolis Colts: Wow, what a season for Andrew Luck and the Colts last year. Luck pretty much brought the team and Reggie Wayne back to relevance. I think he does it again, as I would take Luck among the top 10 fantasy QBs and Wayne in the top 15 for fantasy WRs. However, it's Ahmad Bradshaw who I think is being overlooked in drafts. The Colts didn't sign him to sit him on the bench. I see him being an underrated top 20-25 fantasy RB this season.
Jacksonville Jaguars: I would have loved to predict that Justin Blackmon breaks out and finishes as a top 10 WR. However, the knucklehead went and got himself suspended for the first 4 games (I still like him later in drafts, after you have 4 or so WRs on your roster). The Jaguar who is being overlooked this year is Maurice Jones-Drew. Remember him? The guy who lead the NFL in rushing just 2 years ago? I'd happily draft him in the mid-2nd round, as I believe he finishes as a top 10 fantasy RB.
Kansas City Chiefs: Andy Reid is the new man in charge in KC this year, and so it stands to reason that the offense will drastically improve. Many are excited about RB Jamaal Charles. After all, with Andy Reid as the HC, Lesean McCoy had many great seasons for the Eagles. I do like Charles, and would happily draft him in the 2nd half of the 1st round. However, the guy I'm most excited about is WR Dwayne Bowe. With new QB Alex Smith in town, I think Bowe is finally ready to shine. Put him down for 1200 yards and 10 TDs, good for top 10 WR status.
Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins have some promising weapons. QB Ryan Tannenhill should improve in his 2nd year as starter and the Dolphins brought in WR Mike Wallace to help him out. While I'm not a big fan of either of them, I do love 2nd year RB Lamar Miller. The Dolphins keep saying that Miller and RB Daniel Thomas will split carries, but I think that is BS. Look for Miller to grab the starting gig and never look back. Lamar Miller finishes 2013 as a top 15 RB.
Minnesota Vikings: Adrian Peterson will be drafted 1st in every draft I participate in! Just kidding. I mean, he will, but that's not a bold prediction. Other than AP, there is not much to love about the Vikings offense, in real life or fantasy. So let's stick with AP - he will not only finish as the top fantasy RB, but he will break the NFL record for rushing yards in a season, as he almost did last year. Draft him first and do not think twice about it.
New England Patriots: No Wes Welker, no Aaron Hernandez, a banged up Rob Gronkowski and no Danny Woodhead. Man, the Patriots are going to suck this year! Only kidding. If anyone is still doubting Tom Brady at this point, they are nuts. But apparently people are doubting him, because I have seen Brady fall as far as the 5th or 6th round in fantasy drafts, being drafted behind young guys like RGIII, Kaepernick and others. That is a mistake. Tom Terrific will finish as a top 3 fantasy QB in 2013. Even without the old weapons.
New Orleans Saints: The Saints are getting kinda boring, no? I mean Drew Brees is awesome. Marques Colston is a solid WR2. Darren Sproles is great in PPR leagues and pretty solid in regular leagues. Etc., etc., etc. I purposely left out Jimmy Graham, because that dude is anything but boring. He is basically a fantasy #1 WR from the TE position. And that is pretty amazing. I would happily draft Jimmy Graham in round 2 of a 10 team league, as my first WR. He is that good. And he will absolutely finish as the #1 fantasy TE in 2013.
New York Giants: Victor Cruz is awesome. Hakeem Nicks is great. But it's Rueben Randle that I want to discuss, because I think he will finish as a top 30 WR even though he's 3rd on his own team. Let's face it, Cruz and Nicks cannot stay healthy. And when they go down, it'll be Randle who steps up. I can see 1000 yards and 6-8 TDs.
New York Jets: No offense to my friends who like the Jets, but my bold prediction is that not a single New York Jets player finishes as a fantasy starter at any position. No top 10 QB, no top 25 RB and no top 30 WR. I doubt you'll find a Jets player on any of my 6 fantasy teams this year.
Oakland Raiders: I pushed all my chips into the middle of the table on Darren McFadden last year and now I feel silly. The guy is so talented but just cannot stay healthy. So I'm avoiding him this year - maybe RB3 but nothing more. Instead, I will go really bold and say that QB Terrelle Pryor will win the starting job by week 6 and will put up Cam Newton-like points. Pryor will be a regular bye-week fill-in QB the 2nd half of the season, and someone drafted among the top 15 QBs next year.
I'm getting long winded, so let's go rapid fire for these last few teams:
Philadelphia Eagles: Lesean McCoy will thrive in Chip Kelly's offense and finish as a top 3 fantasy RB.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Emmanuel Sanders, not Antonio Brown, will be the Steelers top WR and finish among the top 20 overall.
San Diego Chargers: Ryan Mathews will make me look stupid for dropping him in a keeper league, will finally stay healthy and finish as a top 15 RB.
San Francisco 49ers: Colin Kaepernick will be drafted as a top 8 QB but finish outside the top 15. Stay away.
Seattle Seahawks: Golden Tate will step up with Percy Harvin sidelined and put up WR2 numbers the first half of the season.
St. Louis Rams: Daryl Richardson will hang onto the starting RB gig and post top 20 RB numbers all year.
Tampa Bay Bucs: Vincent Jackson will continue to fly under the radar as a top 5 fantasy WR.
Tennessee Titans: Chris Johnson is now finally underrated after a couple disappointing seasons - he will finish among the top 10 fantasy RBs in 2013.
Washington Redskins: RGIII will have an Adrian Peterson-like bounce back from ACL surgery (thanks, HydroWorx!) and finish as a top 5 fantasy QB.
Again, props to ESPN's Matthew Berry, as this post is basically a combination of his "Love/Hate" and "You Heard Me" columns. So, without further ado, my bold predictions for Fantasy Football 2013, team by team:
Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals made some major off season changes, including bringing in a QB who should finally be able to get the ball to Larry Fitzgerald. With Fitzgerald, no one ever questioned his skills, just the skills of his QBs. Now with Carson Palmer at the helm, I think Fitz is ready to return to top tier status. Larry Fitzgerald will end the season as a top 3 fantasy WR.
Atlanta Falcons: Once again, the Falcons are loaded on offense with fantasy weapons. Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez make up one of the most prolific passing attacks in the NFL. This year, however, they added Steven Jackson to take the offense to the next level. Everyone is on the "SJax" hype train....but me. Steven Jackson, most likely due to injuries, will finish outside the top 20 fantasy RBs.
Baltimore Ravens: After winning the Super Bowl last year, you would think the Ravens would be full of fantasy stars. However, only one member of the Ravens is regularly drafted in the first 5 rounds this year - Ray Rice. I made the prediction that Torrey Smith would be a top 20 fantasy WR last year, and I was wrong. So let's double down - Torrey Smith will finish as a top 15 fantasy WR in 2013.
Buffalo Bills: CJ Spiller is the big fantasy name on the Bills this year. In mostly a split role last season, Spiller broke out and is now being drafted as a consensus top 10 fantasy pick. I agree with the consensus and think he will finish as a top 6-8 fantasy RB. However, that isn't bold. Instead, I'll say that rookie QB EJ Manuel will win the starting job and finish as a top 20 fantasy QB; meaning he should be drafted in fantasy leagues and used as a backup/bye week replacement. Big potential.
Carolina Panthers: Not much to love about the Panthers in fantasy outside of Cam Newton, who remains a solid option at QB. Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams have been teasing us with fantasy potential for years, but neither has proved to be a reliable fantasy starter. Therefore, I will say that rookie RB Kenjon Barner from Oregon will eventually take over as the starter and will be flex worthy the last 1/3rd of the season. Don't draft him, but keep an eye on his carries week to week.
Chicago Bears: With new head coach Marc Trestman at the helm, I think the Bears will focus a bit more on a balanced offensive attack; meaning that Matt Forte should get more work than he has in the past. As a result, I see Forte finishing as a top 7 fantasy RB. Right now, he is being drafted in the 11-15 range among RBs. Take him at the end of the 1st round.
Cincinnati Bengals: Love the potential of shifty speedster rookie Giovanni Bernard. Unfortunately, I fear the Bengals are going to stick with BenJarvus Green-Ellis as their starter for far too long, making Bernard only an RB4 type of back. That said, grab him earlier in drafts, as I can see a big second half leading to Bernard being a fantastic option for keeper leagues going into next year.
Cleveland Browns: I think the Browns could be a good source of fantasy points this year. I wouldn't go near QB Brandon Weeden in fantasy, but I do like WR Josh Gordon later in drafts (once his suspension ends) and I LOVE RB Trent Richardson in his 2nd full NFL season. Last year, he dealt with some early injuries, and again he has some of those concerns this season. However, that isn't going to stop me from saying that Richardson will finish as a top 3 fantasy RB.
Dallas Cowboys: Everyone LOVES Dez Bryant this year. In the 2nd half of last season, he was the top fantasy WR. It would seem that he has put any issues behind him and finally is ready to take his place at the top of the WR charts. I disagree. I think Bryant will go back to his injury-riddled, immature ways and finish outside the top 10 WRs. Doesn't seem bold? Right now, he's being drafted as the #2 WR in drafts!
Denver Broncos: Lots to like here as well. Manning and his WRs should all have big seasons. But it's the RBs that are questionable. Will Montee Ball take the bull by the horns and run away with the starting gig? I don't think so. There is enough uncertainty right now in the Broncos backfield for me to make this prediction: RB Knowshon Moreno, yes, him, will lead the Broncos RBs in fantasy points in 2013.
Detroit Lions: Man, that Titus Young prediction worked out well for me last year, huh? Instead of cutting my losses, I'm going to double down again. Only this time on WR Ryan Broyles. With Stafford throwing the ball 700+ times a season, someone other than Calvin Johnson has to catch passes. This year it'll be Broyles, to the tune of 80-1000-8 and a finish among the top 20 fantasy WRs.
Green Bay Packers: The Packers have a ton of weapons, I'm just not sure that equates to big fantasy seasons for any one player (other than QB Aaron Rodgers, of course). That said, I'll go out on a limb and say that rookie RB Jonathan Franklin, not Eddie Lacy, will lead the Packers in fantasy points from the RB position and will be a flex worthy player the 2nd half of the season.
Houston Texans: WR Andre Johnson had a nice bounce back season last year, and I do not think it was a fluke. I see the trend continuing, and AJ finishing as a top 5 fantasy WR. He is being drafted around 10th at the position. So jump him early and thank me later.
Indianapolis Colts: Wow, what a season for Andrew Luck and the Colts last year. Luck pretty much brought the team and Reggie Wayne back to relevance. I think he does it again, as I would take Luck among the top 10 fantasy QBs and Wayne in the top 15 for fantasy WRs. However, it's Ahmad Bradshaw who I think is being overlooked in drafts. The Colts didn't sign him to sit him on the bench. I see him being an underrated top 20-25 fantasy RB this season.
Jacksonville Jaguars: I would have loved to predict that Justin Blackmon breaks out and finishes as a top 10 WR. However, the knucklehead went and got himself suspended for the first 4 games (I still like him later in drafts, after you have 4 or so WRs on your roster). The Jaguar who is being overlooked this year is Maurice Jones-Drew. Remember him? The guy who lead the NFL in rushing just 2 years ago? I'd happily draft him in the mid-2nd round, as I believe he finishes as a top 10 fantasy RB.
Kansas City Chiefs: Andy Reid is the new man in charge in KC this year, and so it stands to reason that the offense will drastically improve. Many are excited about RB Jamaal Charles. After all, with Andy Reid as the HC, Lesean McCoy had many great seasons for the Eagles. I do like Charles, and would happily draft him in the 2nd half of the 1st round. However, the guy I'm most excited about is WR Dwayne Bowe. With new QB Alex Smith in town, I think Bowe is finally ready to shine. Put him down for 1200 yards and 10 TDs, good for top 10 WR status.
Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins have some promising weapons. QB Ryan Tannenhill should improve in his 2nd year as starter and the Dolphins brought in WR Mike Wallace to help him out. While I'm not a big fan of either of them, I do love 2nd year RB Lamar Miller. The Dolphins keep saying that Miller and RB Daniel Thomas will split carries, but I think that is BS. Look for Miller to grab the starting gig and never look back. Lamar Miller finishes 2013 as a top 15 RB.
Minnesota Vikings: Adrian Peterson will be drafted 1st in every draft I participate in! Just kidding. I mean, he will, but that's not a bold prediction. Other than AP, there is not much to love about the Vikings offense, in real life or fantasy. So let's stick with AP - he will not only finish as the top fantasy RB, but he will break the NFL record for rushing yards in a season, as he almost did last year. Draft him first and do not think twice about it.
New England Patriots: No Wes Welker, no Aaron Hernandez, a banged up Rob Gronkowski and no Danny Woodhead. Man, the Patriots are going to suck this year! Only kidding. If anyone is still doubting Tom Brady at this point, they are nuts. But apparently people are doubting him, because I have seen Brady fall as far as the 5th or 6th round in fantasy drafts, being drafted behind young guys like RGIII, Kaepernick and others. That is a mistake. Tom Terrific will finish as a top 3 fantasy QB in 2013. Even without the old weapons.
New Orleans Saints: The Saints are getting kinda boring, no? I mean Drew Brees is awesome. Marques Colston is a solid WR2. Darren Sproles is great in PPR leagues and pretty solid in regular leagues. Etc., etc., etc. I purposely left out Jimmy Graham, because that dude is anything but boring. He is basically a fantasy #1 WR from the TE position. And that is pretty amazing. I would happily draft Jimmy Graham in round 2 of a 10 team league, as my first WR. He is that good. And he will absolutely finish as the #1 fantasy TE in 2013.
New York Giants: Victor Cruz is awesome. Hakeem Nicks is great. But it's Rueben Randle that I want to discuss, because I think he will finish as a top 30 WR even though he's 3rd on his own team. Let's face it, Cruz and Nicks cannot stay healthy. And when they go down, it'll be Randle who steps up. I can see 1000 yards and 6-8 TDs.
New York Jets: No offense to my friends who like the Jets, but my bold prediction is that not a single New York Jets player finishes as a fantasy starter at any position. No top 10 QB, no top 25 RB and no top 30 WR. I doubt you'll find a Jets player on any of my 6 fantasy teams this year.
Oakland Raiders: I pushed all my chips into the middle of the table on Darren McFadden last year and now I feel silly. The guy is so talented but just cannot stay healthy. So I'm avoiding him this year - maybe RB3 but nothing more. Instead, I will go really bold and say that QB Terrelle Pryor will win the starting job by week 6 and will put up Cam Newton-like points. Pryor will be a regular bye-week fill-in QB the 2nd half of the season, and someone drafted among the top 15 QBs next year.
I'm getting long winded, so let's go rapid fire for these last few teams:
Philadelphia Eagles: Lesean McCoy will thrive in Chip Kelly's offense and finish as a top 3 fantasy RB.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Emmanuel Sanders, not Antonio Brown, will be the Steelers top WR and finish among the top 20 overall.
San Diego Chargers: Ryan Mathews will make me look stupid for dropping him in a keeper league, will finally stay healthy and finish as a top 15 RB.
San Francisco 49ers: Colin Kaepernick will be drafted as a top 8 QB but finish outside the top 15. Stay away.
Seattle Seahawks: Golden Tate will step up with Percy Harvin sidelined and put up WR2 numbers the first half of the season.
St. Louis Rams: Daryl Richardson will hang onto the starting RB gig and post top 20 RB numbers all year.
Tampa Bay Bucs: Vincent Jackson will continue to fly under the radar as a top 5 fantasy WR.
Tennessee Titans: Chris Johnson is now finally underrated after a couple disappointing seasons - he will finish among the top 10 fantasy RBs in 2013.
Washington Redskins: RGIII will have an Adrian Peterson-like bounce back from ACL surgery (thanks, HydroWorx!) and finish as a top 5 fantasy QB.
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